British Airways reduces Lagos capacity

In a clear sign of the downward trend that the Nigerian economy (along with all other oil based countries) is experiencing, British Airways has officially announced that it has reduced capacity on one of its most popular routes i.e. Lagos-London effective immediately which has been carried forward into the IATA S16 season. 

BA used to operate a daily B744 seating 347 pax where as its current B772ERs seat 226 which translates into a capacity drop of 35% !

Oman Air looking to Airbus A350s

Oman Air is considering placing an order for up to 13 Airbus A 350-900s as part of a deal to replace its Airbus A330-200/300 fleet from 2020 onwards. Currently, WY operates 6 A333s + 4 A332s + 4 B788s + 6 B789s.

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oman-air-eyes-airbus-a350-plane-purchase-2016-03-10

Comments:

One does not see no justification for this as WY already will be having nearly 10 B787s (788s and 789s) by the time the A359s would get delivered. They dont have such a large fleet to warrant diversification. It is best to stick to one airplane family to meet their needs because if they required the larger capacity A359 to service any route, then they can instead easily order the B787-10 (781). 

In this way, their 2020-30 wide body fleet is revolving totally around the B787 family rather than A359 + B787. A standardized fleet in turn will result in synergies that translate into cost savings and better efficiency operationally.

American announces Los Angeles-Hong Kong daily

American Airlines has officially announced that it will be launching new daily nonstop flights from its secondary Los Angeles-LAX hub to HKG-Hong Kong effective 07SEP16.

Flights will be flown using AA's flagship Boeing 777-300ERs using the below mentioned schedule:

AA XXX Dep LAX 0155 Arr HKG 0810
AA XXX Dep HKG 2020 Arr LAX 1840

AA's main competitor on this route is their fellow One World member i.e. Cathay Pacific who operate LAX-HKG 4 times daily using a B77W.

Austrian announces Hong Kong

Austrian Airlines has officially announced that it will be launching new nonstop flights to HKG-Hong Kong from its primary Vienna hub effective 05SEP16.

Services shall be flown 5 times per week using a B777-200ER scheduled as follows:

Days: 1/2/3/5/6

OS 067 Dep VIE 1300 Arr HKG 0625+1
OS 068 Dep HKG 0940 Arr VIE 1610

In 2015, point to point traffic demand between VIE and HKG was 34,000 pax. 

Qatar Airways announces 14 new destinations

Qatar Airways has officially announced 14 new destinations that will be added into its rapidly expanding route network in 2016-17. The expansion is wide spread to Africa, Asia and Europe in order to generate the maximum network feed via Doha in both directions.

The new routes are as follows:

WDH (Windoek) - 4 weekly B788s effective 28SEP

KBV (Krabi) - 4 weekly A332s effective 06DEC

AKL (Auckland) - daily nonstop B77Ls effective 03DEC

HEL (Helsinki) - daily nonstop using an A320

SEZ (Seychelles) - daily nonstop using an A320NEO

SJJ (Sarajevo) - 3 weekly nonstop using an A320

DLA (Douala) - operated with a B788 but schedule not released

LBV (Libreville) - operated with a B788 but schedule not released

LUN (Lusaka) - operated with a B788 but schedule not released

CNX (Chiang Mai) - info not yet released
 
PSA (Pisa) - daily A320s

SKP (Skopje) - 3 weekly A320s 

RAK (Makkarech) - info not yet released

NCE (Nice) - info not yet released

Malaysia Airlines looking at large Airbus A350-900 order

Malaysia Airlines has officially announced that the airline has been very impressed with its financial performance over the past two quarter periods and is now considering a serious proposal to place a large order for additional Airbus A350-900s in order to replace its aging A330-300 fleet from 2019 onwards.

Currently MH has 15 A333s in service with an additional 2 A339s on order (dry lease). As far as the A359s are concerned, it has opted to dry lease 6 units (including 2 options) to be exclusively used on double daily KUL-LHR nonstop services.  

If the order proposal comes through, MH's future fleet would solely consist of 2 aircraft types only i.e. 36 B738s + 17 A359s which in turn would make the airline realize a lot of cost saving and operational synergies.  

Oman Air announces Mashad

Oman Air has officially announced that it will be growing its presence in Iran with a new nonstop service to MHD-Mashad, Iran effective 01JUN16 using a Boeing 737-700.

The schedule is a split daily operation ensuring it connects to key Asian and EU markets via MCT in both directions at least 3 times per week.

Days - 2/3/7

WY 453 Dep MCT 0125 Arr MHD 0440
WY 454 Dep MHD 0530 Arr MCT 0735

Days - 1/4/5/6

WY 451 Dep MCT 1400 Arr MHD 1715
WY 452 Dep MHD 2145 Arr MCT 2350

With Saudia and Gulf Air forcibly suspending MHD due to political reasons, the airline is looking to obtain vital feeder traffic support from its own BAH + DMM flights to help sustain the route in its early stages. 

Air China outlines Boeing 787 configuration and routes

Air China has officially announced details of its Boeing 787-9 cabin configuration as well as its initial long haul operational routes that it intends to deploy the aircraft on. 

Their B789s will accommodate 293 passengers in total in a 3 class layout i.e. 30 business (flat beds) + 34 premium economy + 229 economy class. 

The initial long haul routes that it will be operated on (replacing the A330-200) are nonstop flights from Beijing to Rome and Frankfurt.

Ethiopian increases Toronto

Ethiopian Airlines has officially announced that it will be increasing its presence in the Toronto marketplace by adding a new 4th weekly service from its Addis Ababa hub effective 01JUL16. 

All flight will be operated via DUB to YYZ but nonstop on the return leg from YYZ to ADD using a B787-8. The flight schedule is as follows:

Days: 1/3/5/6

ET 502 Dep ADD 2240 Arr DUB 0450+1
ET 502 Dep DUB 0635+1 Arr YYZ  0830+1
ET 503 Dep YYZ 1120 Arr ADD 0725+1

USA carriers desire for Cuba

USA carriers have formally put forward their wish list to be granted for the upcoming Cuba flight rights which is summarized as below:

American Airlines

*All flights using B738s

• 10 daily Miami-Havana 
• Daily each respectively from Charlotte + Dallas 
• Once a week from Los Angeles + Chicago
• Double daily from Miami to Santa Clara, Holguin and Varadero each respectively

Alaskan Airlines

• Double daily Los Angeles-Havana using B739ERs

Delta Airlines

• Daily JFK-Havana using a B757
• Daily Atlanta-Havana using a B757
• Daily Miami-Havana using a B738
• Daily Orlando-Havana using a B738

Jetblue 

• Four daily Fort Lauderdale-Havana using a mixture of A321s and A320s
• Double daily JFK-Havana using an A321
• Double daily Orlando-Havana using a mixture of A321s and A320s
• Double daily Tampa-Havana using an A320
• Daily from Newark and Boston to Havana using an A320
• Daily A320s from Fort Lauderdale to Camagüey, Holguiìn and Santa Clara 

Southwest Airlines

•  Daily Fort Lauderdale-Havana
• Daily Orlando-Havana
• Daily Tampa-Havana
• Daily Fort Lauderdale to Varadero and Santa Clara 

United Airlines

•  Daily Newark-Havana using a B738
• Three weekly Chicago-Havana using a B738

Air China orders 12 Airbus A330-300s

Air China has officially announced that it has placed a confirmed order with Airbus for 12 additional Airbus A 330-300IGWs. All 12 aircraft will be delivered between 2017-18 and shall be used initially for incremental growth followed by gradually replacing its oldest A330-200s on long haul European routes. 

CA currently has in its fleet 30 A332s + 23 A333s. With this incremental order, it totals 65 A330s.  

Emirates announces Hanoi and Rangoon

Emirates has officially announced that it will be launching 2 new Asian destinations effective 03AUG16. 

The new cities are Hanoi, Vietnam and Rangoon, Burma. It will be flown as DXB-RGN-HAN v.v. with full fifth freedom traffic rights using a Boeing 777-300ER. The schedule is mentioned below:

EK 388 Dep DXB 0250 Arr RGN 1105
EK 388 Dep RGN 1235 Arr HAN 1450
EK 389 Dep HAN 2250 Arr RGN 0020+1
EK 389 Dep RGN 0150 Arr DXB 0505

The above mentioned schedule is primarily targeting Europe bound traffic to/from HAN + Umrah/Hajj bound traffic to JED from RGN. 

Oman Air increases London Heathrow

Oman Air has officially announced that it will be increasing its services to LHR-London Heathrow from its main MCT-Muscat hub effective 12APR16.

Current daily nonstop flights will be expanded to double daily using the newly acquired slots. The schedule is as follows:

WY 103 Dep MCT 0125 Arr LHR 0630
WY 104 Dep LHR 0825 Arr MCT 1850

Aircraft: A330-200 (2 class version)



The above flights are now published for sale across all major GDS platforms. 

The point to point demand between MCT and LHR in 2015 was 102,000 pax.

Air India announces Vienna

Air India has officially announced that it will be launching new 3 weekly nonstop flights to Vienna, Austria effective 06APR16.

The new services shall be operated using a Boeing 787-8 using the below mentioned schedule:

Days - 3/5/7

AI 135 Dep DEL 1400 Arr VIE 1845

AI 136 Dep VIE 2245 Arr DEL 0925+1  

The above schedule connects very well in both directions to AI's southeast Asian network + domestic India via Delhi. 

Traffic demand (p2p) between DEL and VIE in 2015 was 43,000 pax !

Air India is doing as a result of Austrian Airlines announcement of suspending their own daily VIE-DEL service effective 27MAR16. 

Press release: http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/air-india-to-launch-direct-flights-to-vienna-116021900842_1.html 

Turkish Airlines announces Summer 2016 capacity changes

Turkish Airlines has officially announced many changes to its entire worldwide route network that will come into effect from the on set of the IATA S16 season (27MAR16). The main highlights are as follows:

DEL - capacity increased from a daily 289 seater A333 to a 400 seater B777-300ER (dry leased from Kenya Airways)

ABV - frequencies increased from 5 weekly to daily flights nonstop using a B739ER

JFK - capacity increased from triple daily A333s to triple daily B773ERs 

JUB - new 3 weekly flights effective 29MAR using a B739ER operated via EBB


DAC - capacity increased from a daily A332 to an A333 nonstop

GVA - frequencies increased from 3 to 4 daily

MUC - frequencies increased from 4 to 5 daily 

EBB - frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly using a B739ER

FIH/LBV - capacity increased from daily B739ER to daily A332

NBO - capacity increased from daily B738 to daily A332

JIB - capacity increased from daily A320 to daily A321 

NKC/DKR - frequencies increased to daily

BKO - frequencies increased from 3 to 5 weekly nonstop flights using a B739ER

NIM - frequencies reduced from daily to 3 weekly

MRU - frequencies increased from 3 to 5 weekly flights using an A333
 

Lufthansa outlines A350-900 configuration

Lufthansa has officially revealed details of its soon to be delivered Airbus A 350-900 cabin configuration and its commercial flying program. The main highlights are as follows:

a) First 10 units to be based exclusively out of its secondary Munich (MUC) hub

b) Will seat 293 passengers in a 3 class layout i.e. 48 J + 21 W + 224 Y

c) First two long haul routes will be New Delhi and Boston

d) Entry into service is IATA Summer 2017 season

Source: https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/press/news-releases/singleview/archive/2016/february/17/article/3941.html

Air Canada orders 75 Bombardier C 300 series aircraft

Air Canada has officially announced that it has placed a major order with Bombardier for the purchase of up to 75 C300 series aircraft designed to entirely replace its Airbus A319 and Embraer E90 fleet.  The order breakdown is for 45 firm units + 30 options and they all can be exchanged for the smaller C100 series if required.

AC stated the following key point in its decision making for choosing this aircraft type versus the A319 it is replacing:

"The entry of the C Series into our fleet is expected to yield significant cost savings. We have estimated that the projected fuel burn and maintenance cost savings (on a per seat basis) of greater than 15 per cent should generate an estimated CASM reduction of approximately 10 per cent, when compared to the aircraft it will replace".

Source: http://aircanada.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=984

Sri Lankan suspends Rome

Sri Lankan Airlines has officially announced network wide changes to its Europe and Asia destinations which will be implemented gradually throughout the IATA S16 season:

FCO - all flights suspended effective 01MAY

FRA - frequencies increased from 4 to 5 weekly nonstop using an A333 effective 01JUL

CDG - frequencies increased from 3 to 4 weekly nonstop using an A333

CAN - frequencies increased from 4 weekly to daily i.e. new 3 weekly nonstop effective 27MAR

RUH - frequencies increased to daily

Emirates increases London Heathrow

Emirates increases London to 9 daily flights with a new 6th daily service into Heathrow effective 27MAR. 

The schedule is as follows:

EK 31 Dep DXB 1130 Arr LHR 1610
EK 32 Dep LHR 1950 Arr DXB 0550+1

Initially this new service will be operated using a 3 class Boeing 777-300ER however from 01JUN16 onwards, the A380 shall be used to upgrade it.

The schedule of EK 31 is ideal for DXB residents and will get some spill over transfer traffic who could not get seats on the more popular 0745/0940am departures. However, the EK 32 departure out of LHR shall prove to be very popular as it connects to nearly all of EK's destinations in Asia and Africa. One can expect EK to initiate special pricing to/from LHR in APR and MAY ensuring that to avail of the special fare, the DXB-LHR-DXB flight portions sold/ticketed have to be on EK 31-32 only. 

Analysis of Iran Air Airbus aircraft order

The state of Iran has officially announced that it has placed a US$ 25 billion order with Airbus + ATR for the supply of 158 aircraft to completely replace Iran Air's aging fleet of 44 aircraft. The breakdown is as follows:
 
12 A380s
16 A350-1000s
27 A330-200/300s
21 A320CEO family line of aircraft
24 A320NEO family line of aircraft 
18 A330-900s
40 ATR 72-600s

Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac4189d8-c5da-11e5-b3b1-7b2481276e45.html

Analysis:

This was arguably the most anticipated order in commercial aviation for years as many pundits were speculating countless times what will IR end up ordering once all sanctions are lifted. Just like the below analysis on Gulf Air (scroll down) this order too has many positives and negatives hence shall be looked at in an objective manner.

Positives

·         Ordering the A350-1000 and A320NEO family line of aircraft    

Ordering the ATR 72-600s for domestic flying rather than DH4 as the AT7s are cheaper to purchase and operate on flights under 1 hour 15 minutes in stage length

· It is expected that many A321NEOs will be ordered from A320NEO family order as this aircraft is ideally suited to operate to popular Iranian emigrant cities in Western Europe year round rather than a more expensive wide body. Cities that are perfect for A321NEO service (3-4) times per week are IKA-DUS, IKA-HAM, IKA-ARN, IKA-MAN, IKA-OSL, IKA-FCO, IKA-CPH and IKA-MUC. 

· The A321 is also perfectly suited for the high demand Shia pilgrim season with the main destinations being BAH, DMM, KWI, DXB and KHI.

· The desire to make IKA airport similar to AUH/DXB/DOH as the government wants to make it a key transfer hub connecting Europe to Asia especially Central Asia via IKA.

Negatives

·
        Ordering the A380 purely out of prestige and a good discounted offer provided by Airbus without looking into the actual commercial requirement of it

·
        Ordering the A330-900 which is not required at all

·
        Too many fleet types (5) i.e. AT7s + A320s + A330s + A350s + A380s

·
        Current fleet of Iran Air is only 44 aircraft where as Mahan Air is 57. If this order was exclusively for IR then there are grand expansion plans put in place which are realistically not commercially viable to achieve even by 2022 due to the rapid scale of expected growth in an uncertain political environment

My recommendation

·
        Reduce fleet types from 5 to 3 which in turn helps reduce overall costs across the board

·
        Fleet types should revolve around AT7 + A320 + A350 family line of aircraft only

·
        The A359 should have been ordered rather than A339 as the A359 offers the same capacity but more flying range and better operating economics. A bunch load of A332s only should have been ordered as a dry leased aircraft for “bridging purposes”.

·
        Wide body fleet should have revolved exclusively around the A350 family i.e. A359 + A351. The A359 can easily fly IKA-LAX nonstop where as the A351 can do IKA-JFK/YYZ nonstop without any payload restrictions!

·        
The A350 helps build up the route on a frequency based level which is more required to be competitive versus TK/LH/QR/EK/EY rather than capacity based with expensive A380s which will never be filled on a year round basis on any route even at 70% SF!

·
        Future fleet (exclusively meant for Iran Air only) should have looked like this if it was an all Airbus/ATR order:

           i.     20 AT7s for domestic secondary cities operations

         ii.     15 A321NEOs

        iii.     20 A320NEOs

         iv.     10 A350-1000s

           v.     15 A350-900s

         vi.     In total 80 airplanes should have been ordered (not 158 which were ordered) with IKA being the major hub and MHD + SYZ acting as secondary hubs.

        vii.     The A350s should be configured in a dual class layout like the current A300s/B747s are presently in IR’s fleet. A maximum of 30 business class flat bed seats should be in the premium cabin and not more.

      viii.     In order to grow the infrastructure of the country’s various industries, the state of Iran needs a viable freighter carrier too importing and exporting goods/raw materials hence it was surprising to note no freighter was ordered. Ideally an order for 5 A330-200Fs should have been placed to cater for this soon to be booming market segment.

Since many would ask what would have been the perfect Iran Air order if all manufacturers could sell aircraft would any obstacles, then my recommendation would have been as follows:

·
        25 Boeing 787-9s exclusively for its wide body operations. This would seat 30J + 261Y and can easily fly IKA-LAX nonstop if need be without suffering any payload restrictions.

·
        15 A321NEOs to be in two different configurations i.e. one for medium haul EU routes with 12J flat beds + 138 economy class (7 units) and another in a regional configuration for high demand domestic + Middle East/Central Asia/ISC routes with 12J + 168Y.

·
        20 Bombardier C300 series aircraft seating 127 passengers i.e. 12J + 115Y and used for regional/domestic services. Using this aircraft type is much cheaper than the A320NEO and also offers the right capacity requirement!

·
        20 ATR 72-600Ts for secondary city flying

·
        In this manner, the order is commercially + politically balanced out with Airbus, Boeing, ATR and Bombardier kept happy by being given a fair slice of the cake. If by 2025, demand explodes for IR then it can consider adding a larger aircraft type.