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Emirates has officially announced that it will
be launching medium haul 2 new destinations in Africa from August as the
carrier strives to be the carrier of choice from Asia and the Middle East to
all corners of the continent. The two new routes are to Abuja and Kano in
Nigeria respectively which shall be operated on a daily basis using an A340-500
effective 01AUG14. From 01JAN15 though, this route gets a capacity upgrade to a
daily B773ER. The service is flown as a triangular i.e. DXB-ABV-KAN 4 times per
week + 3 times per week DXB-KAN-ABV-DXB. In addition, two other routes are
seeing capacity increases during the IATA S14 season by EK which are as
follows:
DUB – frequencies
increased from daily to double daily nonstop using a B773ER effective 01SEP
DME – capacity
increased to double daily A380s effective 01AUG
Kenya Airways has revealed details of its
upcoming first new Boeing 787-800 aircraft (9 on order + 4 firm options) which
is scheduled to enter long haul service from 01JUN. The first major route to
get this new airplane type shall be CDG-Paris operated on a daily basis
nonstop. KQ’s B788s will seat 234 passengers in a two class configuration i.e.
30 business + 204 economy class. The airline also announced many capacity
increases for its medium haul network for the upcoming IATA S14 season of which
the main highlights are as follows:
BOM – frequencies
increased to double daily nonstop i.e. daily B772ER + daily B737-700
AMS – capacity
increased from daily B772ER to daily B773ER
DXB – frequencies
increased to double daily nonstop i.e. daily B763ER + daily B738
DEL – frequencies
increased to daily nonstop using a B737-700
Qatar Airways has announced that it shall be
increasing its capacity to Khartoum and Athens in IATA S14 season in the
following manner:
KRT – frequencies
increased from double daily to 17 weekly using an A320
ATH – capacity
increased to daily A332 + daily A320
Etihad Airways
has revealed many capacity increases to its overall route network for the
upcoming IATA S14 season of which the main highlights are as follows:
JFK – frequencies
increased from daily to double daily effective 01MAR using a B773ER
ISB – frequencies
increased from daily to double daily i.e. daily A321 + daily A320
DUB – frequencies
increased from 11 weekly to double daily i.e. daily B773ER + daily A332
IST – capacity increased
from daily A321 to daily A345 effective 01SEP
LHE – capacity
increased to 11 weekly i.e. daily B773ER + 4 weekly A320
PEW – frequencies
increased from 2 to 5 weekly
Comments:
Considering that 9W
was expected to take over operating the B773ER on this new service effective
01MAY but now cannot due to the U.S. FAA downgrading India from CAT1 to CAT2
status, it will be interesting to see how this scenario plays out as EY will
likely have no other choice but to use 2 of its own B773ERs to operate this
service. To help further feed this new route along with its 9pm departures out
of Europe + morning GCC services, EY should consider increasing flights to
Karachi and Dhaka from daily to 11 weekly at least with a 1000-1100 departure
out of AUH versus 1600 in order to attract more long haul transfer traffic.
China Eastern Airlines (based out of Shanghai)
has revealed that due to strong demand for its U.S. bound services, it shall be
greatly increasing capacity to New York and Los Angeles during the IATA S14 season
in the following manner:
LAX – effective 30MAY,
frequencies increased from daily to double daily nonstop using an A332
JFK – effective 25JUN,
frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly nonstop using an A346
Jet Airways of India has officially announced
that it will be launching new nonstop flights to CDG-Paris, France from its
primary Mumbai hub effective 14MAY. Services will be operated on a daily basis
using an A330-200. The flight schedule is as follows:
9W 124 Dep BOM 1200 Arr CDG 1750
9W 123 Dep CDG 2110 Arr BOM 0945+1
In addition, 9W too announced that it will be significantly
increasing its capacity into Abu Dhabi as part of its strategic alliance with
share holder Etihad Airways from 30MAR onwards in the following manner:
BLR – new daily nonstop flights to be operated using a B738
HYD – new daily
nonstop flights to be operated using a B738
BOM & DEL –
frequencies out of both cities to be increased from daily to double daily using
a B738
All of the new changes mentioned above are timed to connect
nicely via AUH in both directions to EY’s newly launched second daily
AUH-JFK-AUH flight !
Analysis:
If 9W could not get
DEL-MXP to work where it had a monopoly and where the O&D market size
demand between those two cities was almost double of BOM-CDG + via DEL, 9W had
good two way connections to SE Asia, there is no chance what so ever that 9W
has in making BOM-CDG work even on an operating profit basis with or without
Air France code share support! Another route which had higher O&D demand
than BOM-CDG which 9W could not operate properly was BOM-JNB nonstop which has
also been suspended. It would be in 9W’s best interest to use their newly configured
A332s (18J/234Y) on less costlier, shorter, higher demand flights to SE Asia rather than engage in more riskier services to
CDG with an inconvenient arrival time of 1750. The pretext of trying to capture
domestic India traffic via BOM to CDG is also not viable as Indians from
DEL/South India etc do not like transiting via BOM to reach their final
destination hence in turn would gladly choose, EK, QR, EY, WY, LH, BA, UL etc
to reach their final destination.
Ethiopian Airlines CEO has officially revealed
that the carrier is eager to place another major order for 30 new aircraft
comprising of 20 narrow bodied and 10 wide bodied aircraft in Q1 2014. As far
as the narrow bodied fleet is concerned, it will be a choice between the
B738MAX and A320NEO of which the B738MAX is expected to win the battle for
obvious reasons as the carrier currently has a strong B737NG fleet already in
place. With regards to the all more glamorous wide body order, ET’s CEO
disclosed that it will be 10 units for the Boeing 777-900X once they get a
clearer understanding of which production slots they can be given.
In route related news, ET announced that it shall be the
first African airline to launch new nonstop flights to PVG-Shanghai, China
effective 29MAR14. It will be flown on a daily basis using their new B787-800
thus finally providing PVG direct access to the growing Africa market. Other
route network developments announced by the carrier for the upcoming IATA S14
season are as follows:
GIG – all flights
suspended
NBO – frequencies
increased from 3 to 4 daily nonstop
LBV – capacity increased
to 5 weekly nonstop terminator flights using a B738
PNR - capacity increased to 5 weekly nonstop
terminator flights using a B737
HGH – flights
currently flown via DEL to be suspended in favor of nonstop ADD/PVG
VIE – new daily
nonstop flights to be launched effective 01JUN using a B763ER tagged on to ARN
Comments:
The B779X even by 2020 one reckons would be
too big of an aircraft for ET to operate efficiently on any route year round. ET
till 2025 do not need an aircraft anything bigger than the A359. Their long
haul fleet by 2018 will be too complex i.e. B788s + A359s + B777s for what?
Quite pointless having 3 different airplane types for a market segment
requiring less than 35 units. They should just standardize it around the A359
and B788 plus think of adding a gradual second daily frequency into some
Asian/EU markets to feed their second departure/arrival out of/to Addis Ababa
otherwise a bottle neck situation will arise! Smart airlines such as Cathay
Pacific, JAL, ANA and many North American carriers who have a much larger home
+ regional market demand for their long haul routes, have avoided large
aircraft such as the A380 because they are correct in forecasting that more
frequencies is the way of the future giving the passengers more scheduling
flexibility plus in turn allowing different hub waves to be built at their
respective airport bases versus clogging up everything during one certain
departure/arrival time which leads to a problematic bottleneck!
Iberia of Spain has officially announced that it
has exercised a previously existing option with Airbus to convert 10 A330s that
it had on order to firm units as the carrier looks to use these aircraft to
replace its gas guzzling A343s on long haul services to USA and South America
as soon as possible. All units are for the larger A333 which in IB’s
configuration shall be seating 277 passengers i.e. 36J + 241Y.
Lufthansa has announced major capacity changes
to its long haul route network for the IATA S14 season of which the main
highlights are as follows:
MUC/DXB –
frequencies reduced from daily to 6 weekly A333s
FRA/PVG –
frequencies increased from daily to double daily i.e. daily B744 + daily A380
FRA/BKK –
capacity increased to daily nonstop terminator A346 operated service
FRA/PEK –
capacity increased from daily B744 to daily A380
FRA/BOS –
capacity increased to double daily B744s
FRA/DXB –
capacity reduced from daily B744 to daily A343
FRA/LAX –
frequencies increased from daily to double daily operated by B748s only
Saudia Airlines
has officially announced that it is going to be placing a major order this year
for 50 aircraft comprising of both narrow and wide bodied airplanes as the
carrier wants to ensure favorable delivery schedules from 2019 onwards to
replace many of its planes that would be nearing retirement by that time. SV is
expected to place an order for up to 30 A320/A321NEOs where as the remaining 20
units are likely to be a mixture of B777Xs and B787s.
Analysis:
Currently, SV’s wide
bodied fleet has 15 A333s + 16 B744s + 23 B772ERs + 11 B773ERs + 8 B789s on
order. For the 2020-30 period, what needs to be definitely replaced are the 16
B744s + 23 B772ERs. In order to ensure that it gets a good deal from Boeing as
well as being able to standardize its long haul fleet across 2 different
aircraft types only, SV should negotiate with the American manufacturer for
them to buy their 15 A333s in exchange for a large B779X order which is the
ideal aircraft for SV in the long run. It can fly to any U.S. city nonstop from
JED/RUH + offers 400-500 seater capacity in a premium 3 class or 2 high class
density version for different market segments such as LON/USA/CDG (prestige)
and Indian Subcontinent/MNL/CGK (high density labor/VFR). In this manner, the 2020-30 wide body fleet of
SV would be solely revolving around 2 aircraft types only i.e. B789 + B779
which in turn shall bring major cost savings benefits in terms of operations,
maintenance, spare parts and crew training etc.
Cathay Pacific has announced that it will be
making major capacity adjustments across its long haul network for the IATA S14
season of which the main highlights are as follows:
AUH – all flights
suspended
JED – all flights
suspended
RUH – capacity to
be increased as the route shall now be operated 5 times per week nonstop as a
terminator service using an A333
BAH – frequencies
increased to daily flights via DXB using an A333
Philippine Airlines has officially revealed few
capacity enhancements to its route network schedule for the upcoming IATA S14
season of which the main highlights are as follows:
DXB – frequencies
increased from 5 to 6 weekly nonstop flights using an A333
RUH – frequencies
increased from 4 to 5 weekly nonstop flights using an A333
NGO – frequencies
increased from daily to double daily i.e. daily A321 + daily A343
KIX - frequencies
increased from daily to double daily i.e. daily A333 + daily A343
FUK – frequencies
increased from 5 weekly to daily
HND – new double
daily nonstop flights to be launched using an A321 + A330 each daily
Korean Air has officially announced that it
will be launching new nonstop flights to IAH-Houston, USA effective 02MAY
onwards as the carrier looks to tap into the growing Texas-SE Asia market segment
by being the only carrier offering services from both DFW and IAH each
respectively. KE’s new ICN-IAH flights will be flown 4 times per week using a
B772ER and as a result of which many capacity changes for its other routes were
announced as well which were as follows:
DFW – frequencies
reduced from daily to 5 weekly using a B772ER
JFK – capacity
increased to double daily nonstop flights all operated with an A380
LED – frequencies
increased from 3 to 5 weekly nonstop using a B772ER
SEA - frequencies
increased from 5 weekly to daily nonstop using a B772ER
DXB – capacity reduced
from daily B772ER to daily A332
GRU via LAX –
frequencies increased from 3 to 5 weekly using a B773ER
ZRH – capacity increased
to 3 weekly nonstop terminator flights using an A332
CGK – frequencies
increased from daily to 10 weekly
CEB – capacity increased
from daily A333 to daily B744
HAN – frequencies
increased from daily to 11 weekly
VIE – capacity increased
to 3 weekly nonstop terminator flights using a B772ER
LAX – frequencies
increased from 17 to 19 weekly nonstop using a mix of B777s
