Sri Lankan Airlines has revealed significant
capacity expansion plans across its medium haul Asian network from 15JUN
onwards of which the main highlights are as follows:
LHE
– frequencies increased from 3 to 5 weekly nonstop flights using an A320
DAC
– frequencies increased from 6 weekly to daily nonstop flights
using an A320
CCU
– new 3 weekly nonstop flights to be launched
SHJ
- frequencies increased from 4 to 5 weekly nonstop flights using
an A320
China Eastern Airlines based out of Shanghai
has revealed expansion plans for its North America bound services for the IATA
W15 season of which the main highlights are as follows:
LAX
– frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly nonstop flights
using a B77W exclusively
YYZ
– frequencies increased from 3 to 4 weekly nonstop flights using a B77W
YVR
- frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly nonstop flights using an A332
exclusively
Oman Air’s
CEO has revealed the configurations of their upcoming B788s and B789s which are
due to be delivered to the airline in 2015-16. A total of 2 B788s + 6 B789s
were originally ordered by WY and their outlined configuration is as follows:
- Two B788s will have 267 seats in a dual class layout i.e.
18J + 249Y
- Out of the six B789s, three will have a three class layout
seating 242 pax i.e. 8F + 30J + 204Y where as the remaining 3 will have
288 seats in a dual class configuration i.e. 30J + 258Y.
- The 3 class B789s will be used on LHR-MCT which is going to
be increased to double daily by W15 season.
- It has ordered 20 new B737s out of which the breakdown is
for 10 B737NGs + 10 B737MAXs. However the breakdown of whether its for the
-700/800/900MAX version has not yet been revealed!
- Fleet strength to be increased to 70 units by 2020 i.e. 25
wide bodies + 45 narrow bodies with all E75s + ATRs to be phased out by
2017 as the airline sees no value having regional aircraft in its fleet.
It was also revealed that
their next new long haul route is going to be a city in China (most likely
Beijing) which is expected to come online in 2016 and to be operated with a
B788.
Analysis:
There is no commercial
justification for WY to have a first class cabin and three different cabin
configurations for its B787 fleet which only causes further confusion
internally for their scheduling and operations personnel. WY has built an
excellent reputation offering a high end premium product in all of its cabin
classes but in the past due to its low density configuration of its A330 fleet,
it has in turn resulted in major revenue loss. All of their B787s should have a
standardized two class layout because if an airline with a much higher premium
client base such as Qatar Airways can afford + see the commercial sense of not
having a first class cabin on board its B787 and B777 fleet, Oman Air should
accordingly take notice!
With regards to its
future wide body fleet, WY's CEO has officially announced that the airline is
looking at the A330NEO family as well as ordering more B787s as by 2020, it
aims to operate at least 25 wide body aircraft alongside 45 B737NGs/MAXs. The
current wide body fleet numbers 4 A332s + 6 A333s + 2 B788s + 6 B789s totaling
18 aircraft. This means that WY aims to grow its WB fleet by adding a further 7
units.
From a commercial
business stand point across all board, it is advisable that WY standardize
their wide body fleet around the B787 family and not a combination of both as
the former overall would be cheaper to maintain + operate + can fly any route
nonstop even up to JFK if need be which the A330NEO cannot do. Its 10 A330s are
in very good shape hence would fetch a decent resale value in the used aircraft
market place by the end of the decade. Since the requirement is to fly 25 wide
body aircraft, the split should be 15 B789s + 10 B788s configured in the below
mentioned manner:
B788 - maintain existing
dual class configuration of 18J + 249Y
B789 - two options to be
considered here
Option 1
- standardize all B789s to 30J + 258Y
Option 2
- have two dual class configurations i.e. for its normal long/medium haul
routes with the already stated configuration i.e. 30J + 258Y alongside a high
density configuration that is required for many leisure/labor market routes.
The high density B789 should be configured to seat 18J (same number of J class
seats that the B788 has) + 294Y totaling 312 seats. Such a configuration is
ideal from a flight economics point of view to operate on high density
labor/leisure routes such as Jakarta, Manila, Kuala Lumpur, Dhaka, Colombo,
Jeddah, Lahore and Kochi.
As far as its narrow body
fleet is concerned, it currently numbers 2 B737s + 26 B738s + 5 B739ERs + 4
E75s totaling 37 units. This is stated to be increased to 45 by 2020 as part of
the recent order for 20 B737s is to replace by 2022 its oldest B737-700s +
B737-800s. For the Indian subcontinent routes + Cairo + selected flights to
Saudi Arabia, the B739ER/MAX is the best aircraft for WY from an economic
performance point of view as it offers 20% more seating capacity than the B738
operating with only 7% higher costs hence a no brainer. The B739MAX has the
capability to also fly up to Thailand nonstop from MCT should the need arise in
the future.
Thai Airways has
officially announced that in order to rapidly accelerate cost saving measures
as part of its 3 year turn around plan, it shall speed up the process by phasing
out 22 wide bodied aircraft in 2015 alone which are as follows:
8 B744s + 2 B744Fs + 6 A346s + 6 of its oldest A333s
As a result of the 2 B744 freighters (744Fs) being retired, it
will mark the end of Thai Cargo operating as a seperate entity as the airline
looks to use the belly space of its B777, A330 and B787 for the uplift of
commercial cargo.
FYI in 2013, TG lost $392 million versus $482 million in 2014
operating with 102 aircraft (82 of which were wide bodies)!
Analysis:
A
well thought out move by TG's management concerning the fleet in addition to
suspending JNB, DME and MAD flights this year as well. However, there are few
additional items that need to be considered and implemented:
LAX
flights need to be suspended in 2015 too as they utilize 1.5 aircraft for only
a 4 weekly service hence an inefficient way of utilizing an asset. In addition,
this route is a major loss maker i.e. even bigger than MAD/DME hence just like
its fellow rival Malaysia Airlines also swallowed its pride and suspended LAX,
Thai too needs to bite the bullet by following suit.
TG
needs to also to maintain its brand and image reputation by continuing to
operate as a legacy carrier and not confuse itself + its passengers with a dual
brand strategy with its Thai Smile LCC. It just needs to look at other major
legacy carriers who have experimented with the same strategy and failed i.e.
UA, DL, 9W, AC and JAL to name a few.
The
20 A320s of Thai Smile should all be leased out to interested airlines in Asia
or TG should instead dry lease in 10 A321-200s with one ACT. These A321s can
fly easily up to 6 hours nonstop from BKK airport and help reduce operational
costs significantly on ASEAN + Indian subcontinent routes where mutiple daily
frequencies using a B777/A330 is not always required + some routes that are
operated on a daily basis using a wide body would do better with an A321.
The
A321 to begin with should be configured to seat 12J + 168Y in a dual class (180
seats total) layout easily. Its total cost of operations is $5000 less per hour
on average (50% less) than an A333/B772 and can also in its belly carry 3.5
tons of cargo. It would be more commercially viable for TG using this aircraft
type on routes such as CMB, HYD, ISB, CCU, BLR and secondary cities in China rather
than the wide body aircraft. In addition, this aircraft is also ideal in fine
tuning capacity, for example its current BKK-SIN service is flown 5 times daily
but at least 3 of these flights can be easily operated at full S/F using an
A321 rather than a 50-60% A333/B772! A route such as DPS + MNL which is only
operated once daily, can be instead flown twice daily comfortably with an A321
thus in turn providing more schedule flexibility for P2P pax + better network
feed especially for EU/DXB bound flights. SGN + HAN currently flown double
daily with a wide body, can easily support a triple daily flights on their own
using an A321 due to the massive O&D demand to Thailand and East Asia
itself + EU! On the domestic front, in order to increase market share and
operate in a more efficient manner on the popular BKK-HKT sector in particular
where it currently flies 8 times daily with B777/A330s, it can do so 10-12
times daily using an A321 with peak time flights operating as a shuttle service
for both business + leisure pax.
Emirates
has officially announced major capacity
increases across its long haul route network from 01OCT15 onwards as the
carrier looks to aggressively cement its market share position in key high
yielding segments that are seen to have long term growth potential. The main
highlights are as follows:
BOS – frequencies
increased from daily to double daily nonstop using a B77W
ZRH - capacity
increase to double daily A380s effective 01OCT due to strong demand especially
for its premium cabin classes on this sector.
CPH - capacity increased from daily B77W to daily A380. The A380 to be
used for CPH will be in the new two class configuration seating 615 pax i.e.
58J + 557Y !
Comments:
EK will be receiving 4 dual class A380s this
winter and CPH has been the first destination announced for the whale jet. This
configuration makes it the largest passenger airplane in service today (seats
wise) beating the 560 pax B747-400 previously in service with JAL/ANA. The
other destinations that one would expect EK sending the dual class A380 on are
Mauritius, Manila, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and Jakarta.
Copa Airlines
based out of Panama in South America has officially announced that it has
placed its largest ever order for aircraft with Boeing worth $6.6 billion. The
aircraft ordered is for a combination of both B738MAX and B739MAX with the
breakdown per aircraft type not mentioned though! Currently, CM's fleet
consists of 17 B737-700s + 26 E90s + 56 B738s. The B737s are being replaced
with B738s in a phased manner from this summer onwards. The B739MAXs ordered
will be used to replace the B738s on the most popular medium haul routes such
as those to JFK, MIA, EZE, GRU and GIG.
China Southern Airlines based out of Guangzhou, China has officially announced that it
will be significantly increasing its presence in the LAX market place effective
19JUN onwards. Frequencies will be raised from daily to 11 weekly
nonstop flights operated by an A380 daily + 4 weekly B77W. The carrier
looks to tap into the ever increasing CAN/HKG/Shenzen corridor traffic segment
as well as further aggressively poach away traffic from other airlines that is
bound to SIN, MNL, PEK, PVG, BKK, DEL and KUL.
Turkish Airlines has officially
announced to the Istanbul Stock Exchange,
that it has secured on a long term dry lease 5 additional A330s of which the
main highlights are as follows:
- Three A330-200s (22J+228Y
config) will be leased from Wells Fargo Bank which will bring the total
A332 fleet to number 20 units.
- Two brand new A330-300s (ex Afriqiyah Airways of Libya) will be leased for 8
years. These will be configured in TK's standard 28J+261Y configuration
and will result in the A333 fleet number to rise to 21 units currently!
With regards to its route network, TK
too revealed significant capacity upgrades which are as follows:
NRT
– capacity increased to double daily nonstop flights using
an A333 exclusively
ADD
– capacity increased from daily B739 to daily A332
FIH/LBV
– frequencies increased from 3 to 5 weekly flights using an A332
Comments:
With the lifting of Iran sanctions imminent, one should not be surprised to
see TK rapidly ramping up its flights to the various destinations it serves
there as well as possibly launch new 3-4 weekly nonstop flights to DTW-Detroit,
USA to cater for the large number of Lebanese, Iranian, Iraqi, Jordanian,
Egyptians residing in Michigan state.
Qatar Airways has officially announced that they
will be significantly increasing its services to Indonesia from July 2015
onwards in the below mentioned manner:
CGK - frequencies increased to triple daily nonstop flights using an
A332 double daily + B77W daily
DPS - frequencies increased from daily to double daily nonstop flights
using a B788 for all flights
Comments:
The increase of services to DPS-Bali will definitely help increase S/F on
its European bound services as that is the main target market along with Dubai
and Jeddah. In addition, it also gives a competitive edge to QR by operating
double daily to the island city as Emirates has announced that they are launching
new DPS-DXB services on a daily basis using a B77W from June too. With regards
to the Indonesia country itself, if QR is given more bilateral access, it
should seriously look at serving SUB-Surbaya airport nonstop from DOH at least
four times per week using an A332 initially as it is nice little niche market
having the second largest urban population (9 million) along with high labor
demand to GCC/KSA in particular.
