Jet Airways

Jet Airways of India has placed an order for 7 additional Boeing 777-300ERs last week thus increasing its commitment from 13 to 20 of this popular aircraft model. Three of these planes would be delivered to the airline by Winter 2009 as the carrier looks to embark on an ambitious international expansion before its main rivals i.e. Air India and Kingfisher gain a stronger hold in UK and North America.

Analysis :

What will be interesting to see is whether or not all 20 B 773ERs ordered by 9W will see a fancy 3 class layout or will some have a 2 class configuration as many people don't see the need for all of its EU/North America flights warranting a first class cabin.

Lets examine how the B 773ERs could be used :

2 used for daily EWR2 used for daily JFK

2 used for double daily BOM-LHR1 used for daily DEL-LHR

2 used for future daily BLR-BRU-LAX (summer 08)

2 used for future daily BOM-PVG-SFO (summer 08)

That makes 11 B 773ERs designated for current and future routes which have been mentioned many times in media outlets worldwide. This means there are 9 B 773ERs to play around with. They can be used in the following manner :

2 used for daily IAH...i.e. 4 weekly DEL-BRU-IAH + 3 weekly BOM-BRU-IAH

2 used for daily HYD-BRU-IAD

The main reason why IAH should be divided between DEL & BOM is because these 2 markets need extra service from 9W as the demand is there especially in the peak summer season (June-Sept) and winter (Nov-Jan). In order for 9W to increase and at the same time protect its market share from its 2 main Indian gatway cities i.e. BOM & DEL, it must increase capacity to meet growing demand to USA from these 2 market segments otherwise it will steadily lose out. Already AI offers triple daily BOM-NYC + double daily DEL-NYC flights + BA too flies double daily to both cities and soon Kingfisher will become a key player in this competitive segment.

2 used for daily same plane service LHR-BLR-SIN because the B 773ER has a larger number of high yielding premium class seats compared to its A 332s. 9W can easily make money on the LHR-BLR route (in all 3 cabin classes) which is currently dominated by BA who make a hefty profit flying it. 9W should consider using 2 aircraft for daily same plane SIN-BLR-LHR as SIN-BLR is a "premium route" capable of seeing high J class loads and a little bit of F here and there. The flight schedule can be as follows if LHR slots can be obtained :

Dep LHR 1500 Arr BLR 0600+1

Dep BLR 1000 Arr SIN 1630...i.e. 4 hr transit at BLRDep SIN 2230 Arr BLR 0200+1..plane gets parked in SIN for 6 hours which is ok.

Dep BLR 0600+1 Arr LHR 1200+1...i.e. 4 hr transit at BLR

The remaining 3 B 773ERs should be configured in a 2 class layout seating 370 passengers approximately as the Middle East routes forecasted for them below do not warrant having a first class cabin on board. Currently, 9Ws B 773ERs seat 312 pax in a 3 class configuration.

1 aircraft for double daily BOM-DXB-BOM...one forsees this happening in the near future (subject to DXB-India bilateral liberalizing). 9W has a better in-flight premium cabin product than EK does on its A 332s / B 772s which fly BOM-DXB-BOM and therefore stands to gain a good chunk of the premium traffic on this lucrative route.

Flight schedule can be as follows :

9W 600 Dep BOM 1100 Arr DXB 1230

9W 601 Dep DXB 1400 Arr BOM 1815

same aircraft can then be used for the night flight BOM-DXB-BOM which will arrive into BOM early morning next day thus providing excellent connections through 9Ws domestic India network i.e.

9W 602 Dep BOM 2100 Arr DXB 2230

9W 603 Dep DXB 0030+1 Arr BOM 0445+1

1 aircraft can be used for a daily DXB-DEL-DXB + daily DXB-BLR-DXB (subject to DXB-India bilateral liberalizing)

Dep DXB 0300 Arr DEL 0730

Dep DEL 1030 Arr DXB 1215

Dep DXB 1400 Arr BLR 1930

Dep BLR 2100 Arr DXB 2330

1 B 773ER can be used for daily MAA-DXB-MAA + daily HYD-DXB-HYD (subject to DXB-India bilateral liberalizing)

Dep DXB 0330 Arr MAA 0900
Dep MAA 1200 Arr DXB 1430

Dep DXB 1630 Arr HYD 2130
Dep HYD 2330 Arr DXB 0130+1

Sri Lankan Airlines

Emirates has decided that it will not be renewing its management contract with Sri Lankan Airlines which had been in place for the past 8 years. The DXB based airline also holds a 44% stake in the company. The main reason for the dispute has to do with the denied boarding of the current Sri Lankan President's entourage on a flight from Heathrow to Colombo in December. As a result, the Govt felt that as the majority share holder of the airline, its demands should have been met for which the airline refused to bow down to.

Source : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7175527.stm

Analysis :

After the massive turn around that UL has achieved over the last decade under the guidance of EK, one would hope that sensible heads prevail and that whom ever takes charge from April 1st doesn't ruin all the positives that EK brought to this airline. Definitely, UL has more to lose than gain from EK abandoning its management contract renewal which many believe has a lot to do with Mr Peter Hill being thrown out of the country by the current Sri Lankan President. For one, UL's cash reserves and cash flow wont have the backing that EK could have provided it with nor can it now turn to EK to help get from Airbus or Boeing substantial discounts on future plane orders to especially replace its A 343s which are now over 13 years old.The ceasefire abandonment by the Colombo Govt with the Tamil Tigers would also make matters worse as this can have deadly consequences for the airline and the country's tourism industry which is the main target market for UL especially on European and Far East Asia flights. The only positive thing that one sees happening out of all of this is the fact that now UL does not have to be dictated to as to where they can fly and where they shouldn't. UL had been wanting to fly nonstop to MAN and return to Australia for many years but EK's management didn't wantlol that to happen. UL was also interested in launching one stop flights to NYC via Europe/UK with its A 343 but ended up code sharing with EK instead. To be frank, even though SYD / MEL/NYC/YYZ have large Sinhalese/Tamil Communities residing within their city limits ( YYZ alone has approximately 200,000), the passenger data base for CMB from these areas is usually low yielding therefore even though UL may see decent loads on flights bound for the above mentioned 4 cities, they will most likely end up losing money flying to these places due to the extremely high operating costs involved flying a 280 seater A 343 on these routes + strong competition from QR/KU/EK.

It would be best for the time being for UL to stick with what they have got and build up its marketing presence in key markets where they have a strong presence such as LON, UAE & India because the political situation in Sri Lanka right now is very fragile with the ceasefire agreement with the Tamil Tigers being cancelled. UL's management team for 2008 should therefore adopt a "wait and see" approach to view how the political situation unfolds in Sri Lanka before committing any large scale investment of network expansion or fleet expansion in the short term future as the airline's flight loads heavily depend on there being political peace and harmony on the island.

Gulf Air

Gulf Air has finally revealed many changes to its Summer 2008 schedule which will see its entire fleet of aging Boeing 767-300ERs being retired in favour of dry leased Airbus A 321-200s and B 737-800s. In addition, many destinations witness capacity and frequency changes. The main highlights are as follows :

SYZ - increased from 3 weekly A 320s to daily effective June 16th.

MHD - increased from 3 weekly A 320s to daily effective June 16th.

PEW - capacity reduced from 2 weekly B 763ERs to 2 weekly A 321s.

BOM - capacity increased from June 16th to 12 weekly A 321s + daily A 332 + 2 weekly A 343.

LHR - 3 daily A 332s

DXB - from June 16th, daily A 332 + daily A 321 + triple daily B 738 + triple daily A 320.

TRV - capacity reduced from daily B 763ER to daily A 321.

KUL - daily flights between June-Sept only flown by A 343s to cater for summer season peak traffic.

ATH - reduced from 5 weekly B 763ERs to 3 weekly A 320s.

LCA - increased from 3 to 5 weekly A 320s.

BEY - increased from 9 to 12 weekly A 320 / B 738 operated flights.

DAM - increased from 10 to 11 weekly A 320s.

AMM - increased from 10 to 12 weekly A 320s.

KRT - increased from 6 weekly A 320s to daily flights.

RUH - capacity reduced to daily A 343 + daily A 321.

DOH - capacity increased to 2 weekly A 332s + 2 daily B 738s + 19 weekly A 320s

Comments :

With SYD now suspended, GF needs to suspend its loss making route to ATH. In any case, the feeder traffic obtained by GF from SYD via BAH to ATH was low yielding! GF needs to seriously re-negiotiate its bilateral agreement with Pakistan in order to increase LHE & ISB flights respectively as their presence in these 2 cities have decreased by 50% due to Oman Air taking over MCT-PAK bound flights.

Qatar Airways

Qatar Airways will be launching new nonstop flights to CAN-Guangzhou, China from March 30th onwards. It will serve the city 5 times a week nonstop from its Doha hub using an A 332. Flight timings are as follows :

QR 874 Dep DOH 0100 Arr CAN 1405

QR 877 Dep CAN 2040 Arr DOH 0110+1

Analysis :

Its really pleasing to see QR taking the initiative to go after another niche market in Asia along the similar lines of its flights to CEB & DPS. This is a very good move by QR as it will have a lucrative monopoly for itself on this key route which has a lot of cargo potential as CAN is supposedly the manufacturing capital city of China. None of its Middle Eastern competitors fly to CAN nonstop from their hub airports thus giving QR a competitive edge in this market segment.

Its main competitors on this route are KQ & CZ who offer flights via DXB to CAN nonstop. Obviosuly QR will be targetting a hefty chunk of 6th freedom traffic obtained from UAE, Saudi Arabia, KWI, LHR & Europe to feed the CAN bound flight as its flights are perfectly timed to cater to these markets.

Emirates

Emirates will be increasing its flights to IST-Istanbul, Turkey from daily to 11 times a week effective October 26th 2008. All 11 weekly flights will be flown using a 2 class B 773ER. The additional 4 weekly flights will be flown on Tues, Fri, Sat & Sun. In other EK related news, the third route for their A 380 is almost confirmed to be SYD-Sydney.

Malaysia Airlines

Malaysia Airlines has announced that it will be operating summer seasonal flights to LGW-London Gatwick airport nonstop from its KUL hub between 22nd June and 18th Sept 08. MH will use a B 772ER for this route which will be flown twice a week only. Flights will operate on Thur & Sat only. Flight schedule details are as follows :

MH 7346 Dep KUL 0030 Arr LGW 0700

MH 7347 Dep LGW 1300 Arr KUL 0840+1

In addition, the airline has revealed few changes to its Summer 2008 schedule. The main highlights are as follows :

JED - capacity increased to 4 weekly B 744s between June 25th and end September to cater for the peak summer rush.

NRT - frequencies increased from 12 weekly to double daily B 772ERs.

ADL - frequencies reduced from 5 to 4 weekly B 772ERs.

Singapore Airlines

Singapore Airlines has confirmed that it will be flying 4 daily nonstop flights to SYD-Sydney from April 8th 2008. The new daily flight will be flown using a B 773ER where as the other 3 daily flights are flown by 2 B 744s + 1 A 380.

Flight timings are as follows :

SQ 233 Dep SIN 0700 Arr SYD 1620
SQ 234 Dep SYD 1735 Arr SIN 2350

EVA Air

EVA Air has confirmed that it will start operating flights between KIX-Osaka and LAX-Los Angeles effective 30th March 2008. However, initially it will be flown only 3 times a week (Tues, Fri & Sun) using a B 773ER and then later on increased to 6 times a week. Flight schedule details are as follows :

BR 168 Dep TPE 1030 Arr KIX 1400
BR 168 Dep KIX 1530 Arr LAX 0945

BR 167 Dep LAX 1210 Arr KIX 1605+1
BR 167 Dep KIX 1730+1 Arr TPE 1925+1

Qatar Airways

Qatar Airways has revealed a lot of interesting changes that are in store for its worldwide route network for Summer 2008 and Winter 2008-09. The major highlights are as follows :

*Note : All below mentioned changes are effective March 30th 2008

BOM / DOH / IAD - will operate a daily SAME PLANE service effective March 30th 2008 using a two class configured B 773ER.

LHR - 4th daily flight to Heathrow will be launched using an A 346 five times a week and an A 332 twice a week effective March 30th 2008. Flight details are as follows :

QR 017 Dep DOH 1635 - Arr LHR 2200
QR 018 Dep LHR 0755 - Arr DOH 1650

QR will start using their B 773ERs daily to LHR from August 2008. However, from October 2008, it will be used to LHR 12 times a week.

PEK - capacity on this route will be increased from 4 weekly A 332s to B 773ERs which will be deployed from Sept 1st 2008. Flight details are as follows :

QR 898 Dep DOH 0130 - Arr PEK 1440
QR 899 Dep PEK 2350 - Arr DOH 0425+1

DOH / GVA / EWR - increased to 6 weekly flights i.e. 1 A 333 + 5 weekly A 332s.

DXB - reduced from 8 to 7 daily flights.

KHI - capacity increased to daily A 321s.

LHE - frequencies increased from 2 to 3 weekly A 330s.

ISB - frequencies doubled from 2 to 4 times a week i.e. 2 weekly A 330s + 2 weekly A 320s.

BOM - capacity increase from daily A 330 to daily B 773ER.

HYD - frequencies reduced from daily to 6 weekly A 320s.

MLE - capacity increased to 9 weekly A 330s.

FRA - capacity increased to 9 weekly A 333s + weekly A 332.

MUC - capacity increased to 6 weekly A 333s + weekly A 332.

CMB - capacity reduced to 12 weekly A 320s + 2 weekly A 330s.

KTM - capacity reduced to 9 weekly A 320s + 2 weekly A 332s.

CEB - frequencies increased from 3 to 4 weekly A 330s.

CDG - capacity increased to 7 weekly A 346s + 5 weekly A 330s.

ZRH - capacity increased to 3 weekly A 333s + weekly A 332.

TXL - capacity increased to 2 weekly AB6s + 5 weekly A 320s.

MXP - frequencies increased from 5 weekly to daily A 330s from Sept 1st 08

Comments :

It is really nice to see QR trying to carve out a nice little niche market for itself by offering "same plane" service from BOM via DOH to IAD. Hopefully, it shall have a positive impact with regards to loads and yield on their IAD bound flights. Another interesting feature of their summer 08 timetable are the increased number of weekly flights flown to LHE & ISB. This goes to show that the airline has successfully lobbied in obtaining more traffic flights for the lucurative Northern Pakistan routes.

Singapore Airlines

Singapore Airlines has released tentative details of its Summer 2008 schedule. The main highlights are as follows :

DXB - increased to double daily nonstop flights using a B 773A from May 1st 08.

DEL - increased from daily to 9 weekly B 773As. The two additional flights will operate on Friday and Sunday. Flight details are as follows :

FRI / SUN

SQ 406 Dep SIN 0205 Arr DEL 0555

SQ 405 Dep DEL 0800 Arr SIN 1605

MAA - an additional 11th weekly flight is flown using a B 773A.

HAN - frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly B 772As.

SGN - frequencies increased from 17 weekly to triple daily B 772As.

ZRH - frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly B 773ERs.

PEK - capacity increased to double daily B 773As + daily B 772As.

SIN/BKK/KIX - increased from 5 weekly to daily B 772As.

Malaysia Airlines

Malaysian Airlines has released details of its new flights to Lahore, Pakistan which will be flown from April 2008 from KUL via KHI. Flights will be flown 3 times a week using an A 330-300. The flight timings are as follows :

Flights operate on MON/THU/SAT

MH 170 Dep KUL 15:20 Arr KHI 18:15
MH 171 Dep KHI 19:30 Arr LHE 21:10
MH 171 Dep LHE 22:10 Arr KUL 06:50 +1

KLM

KLM has announced that it will be increasing its flights to LAX-Los Angeles for the peak summer season. The service will result in an additional 2 weekly flights be flown using a B 772ER on Tue & Sat. Thus the operation will become 9 weekly i.e. daily B 744 + 2 weekly B 772ER. The flight timings of the new flights are as follows :

KL 603 Dep AMS 1025 Arr LAX 1240

KL 604 Dep LAX 1240 Arr AMS 1025+1

EVA Air

EVA Air has announced that it will be reducing its presence at LAX-Los Angeles by reducing its weekly frequencies from 20 to 19 effective March 30th 2008. From July 2008, BR will fly 6 times a week to LAX from TPE via KIX-Osaka using a B 773ER. It will be the only airline flying KIX-LAX-KIX nonstop.

BMI

British Midland is seriously scouting the market for used B 762ERs and used B 763ERs as it feels that the A 320s and A 321s that it currently uses on the ex BMED routes to Africa and Central Asia are too small to meet market demand + they cannot carry extra revenue generating cargo in the belly. BMI also revealed that its new business strategy is to "Look East" to expand rather than risk a bloodbath by rapidly expanding trans-atlantic operations which would lead to a fares war.

Analysis:

This is a smart move by BMI to base its medium/long haul expansion around the emerging markets of Central Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East. They are members of Star Alliance so instead of wasting money by flying their own aircraft to multiple cities from LHR, they can easily codeshare with fellow STAR partners i.e. UAL & US Airways on their LHR-USA-LHR flights.

With regards to the ex BMED routes, some like TAS, ALA and IKA see flights flown by A 320/A 321s which at times suffer payload restrictions if the route is flown nonstop or they are routed via another city. This diluted the revenue and marketing feasibility of operating the flights. For Central Asia and West Asia flights (BEY/DAM/AMM), the ideal aircraft for BMI to use would be the B 762ER.

As far as which new "emerging markets" BMI should look into, ones that come to mind are LHE, DMM, DAC, BLR, HYD & IKA. For all these cities, the ideal aircraft to acquire are used B 763ERs which are available in the used aircraft market. In total 13 used B 763ERs can be leased or bought from various companies. These aircraft were built between 1989-1994 and their specifications can be viewed here :

http://www.speednews.com/EquipmentResults.aspx?Search=Aircraft&Aircraft=767&Type=-300ER

Vietnam Airlines

Boeing has officially confirmed that the state of Vietnam has confirmed placing an order for 12 Boeing 787-800s. Four of those aircraft will be bought by Vietnam Airlines where as the remaining 8 are being purchased by VALC (Vietnam Aircraft Leasing Company) who will dry lease the planes to VN.

Finnair

Finnair has revealed details of its new Asian route i.e. ICN-Seoul which will be flown nonstop from its HEL-Helsinski hub effective 2nd June 2008 using an A 340-300. The flight will be flown 5 times a week.

AY041 Dep HEL 1730 Arr ICN 0825+1

AY042 Dep ICN 1015 Arr HEL 1405

Emirates

Emirates has revealed that its second destination with the Airbus A 380 will be London Heathrow. EK will use the A 380 from Dec 1st 2008 to LHR with the flight numbers being EK 001/002. Flight timings are as follows :

EK 001 Dep DXB 0745 Arr LHR 1135
EK 002 Dep LHR 1345 Arr DXB 0030+1

In addition, EK will be making radical changes concerning equipment being used and frequency increases on many of its routes from March 2008. The main highlights are as follows :

USA - two new cities are to be launched i.e. ORD & LAX. Chicago will see nonstop service from DXB using a B 773ER where as LAX would see the same using a B 772LR.

DEL - increased to 11 weekly flights from March 30th and then further increased to 14 times a week effective July 1st 2008. Aircraft used from July are 4 times a week on the A 332 + 10 times a week using B 777s.

NCE - will get 5 weekly nonstop terminator flights from DXB using an A 332 from Dec 1st 2008. Currently NCE is served 3 times a week via FCO using a 3 class B 773A.

LCA/MLA - increased from 5 weekly to daily i.e. 2 weekly B 773ERs + 5 weekly B 773As.

GRU - increased to daily effective July 1st 2008; all flights will be flown using the B 772LRs.

JKT - capacity increased to 9 weekly nonstop terminator services effective Oct 1st 08 using a 2 class B 773ER for all flights.

SIN - reduced from 24 times a week to triple daily only effective Oct 1st 08.

KUL - capacity increased to 9 weekly terminator flights from DXB all using a 2 class B 773ER.

ACC - to be increased from 5 weekly to daily effective Dec 1st 2008 using an A 343.

MUC - capacity to be increased from double daily A 332s to daily B 772ER + daily A 332 effective July 1st 08.

ZRH - capacity increased to daily B 773ER + 4 weekly A 332 + 3 weekly A 345 effective 26th Oct 08.

PEK - capacity increased from July 1st 08 i.e. 5 weekly B 772LR + 2 weekly B 773ER.

NGO - in flight product standard downgraded from daily A 345 to daily A 343 effective March 30th 08.

MEL - third daily flight to be launched from February 2009; it will be flown nonstop from DXB. This third flight will be flown with either an A 345 or A 380.

Qantas

Qantas has announced that it will be increasing its flights to HKG-Hong Kong from MEL-Melbourne effective April 30th 08 by flying route 10 times a week instead of daily. Currently, daily flights are flown using a B 744 where as the 3 additional flights will see an A 333 being utilized.

Alitalia

Alitalia has announced that it will be launching new nonstop flights to LAX-Los Angeles, USA from its new FCO-Rome hub effective June 1st 2008. Flights will be flown 5 times a week using a Boeing 777-200ER on Mon, Wed, Thur, Sat & Sun.

Vietnam Airlines

Vietnam Airlines has confirmed that it has sealed a multi billion order with Airbus earlier on this week for 30 planes. The break up of the order consists of 10 A 359s + 20 A 321s.