PIA - Pakistan

PIA of Pakistan has officially confirmed that it will be launching new flights to Chicago, Kuala Lumpur and Guangzhou (CAN), China from the on set of the IATA Summer 2010 timetable along with capacity increases on other routes. Flights to Chicago will be launched twice a week via Barcelona using a Boeing 777-200ER from June 4th. It shall be flown once a week from Lahore and Karachi respectively with 5th freedom rights available on the BCN-ORD-BCN sector. The main highlights of PK's Summer schedule are as follows:

LHE/DAC/CAN - two new weekly flights to be flown using an A 310-300. Flight schedule as per PK's website is as follows:

Days of operation - MON/WED

PK 854 Dep LHE 1100 Arr DAC 1440 // Dep DAC 1640 Arr CAN 2210
PK 855 Dep CAN 2355 Arr DAC 0135+1 // Dep DAC 0435 Arr LHE 0525

LHE/KUL - once a week nonstop fights using an A 310-300.

LHE/DXB - capacity reduced from daily B 772ERs to 5 weekly A 310s + 2 weekly B 772ERs.

LHE/BCN - frequencies increased from 1 to 2 weekly flights using a B 772ER.

KHI/DAC - capacity reduced to 5 weekly A 310s.

KHI/DXB - double daily nonstop flights to reinstated using an A 310-300 for all services.

ISB/BCN - frequencies increased from 1 to 2 weekly flights using a B 772ER.

SKT/JED - capacity increased from one weekly B 773ER to one weekly B 743.

SKT/KWI - capacity increased from 2 weekly B 737-300s to 2 weekly A 310-300s.

Analysis:

It is very commendable to see PIA take the initiative to launch flights to the Middle East from a secondary airport like Sialkot which shall please the local business community as the Sialkot Chamber of Commerce had invested US$ 101 million to rebuild the airport to provide better services to interested airlines. However, what is extremely disheartening to see is how PIA has planned out its return to ORD-Chicago. To begin with, there is no need what so ever for PIA to fly to ORD because these 2 flights should be instead flown to JFK-New York where the demand and market size is 4 times larger and PIA already has a reputation in that market segment where as in ORD, it has to rebuild it for which creative marketing and sales strategies are required of which PIA has no clue on how to formulate as was evident with their previous disastrous Chicago, Houston and Washington DC experiments! In addition, the biggest market to ORD is from KHI and not Northern Pakistan so why would any 'smart passenger' want to fly PIA once a week with 2 stops en-route to ORD when they can do in a more convenient manner flying Etihad on a daily basis via AUH.

What will PIA do if Emirates launches its own daily DXB-ORD nonstop flights using a B 77W from this October onwards and maybe next year Qatar Airways as well from DOH using the same aircraft type. These two airlines are the primary reason why PIA has seen its market share evaporate in Europe and USA and the same fate will fall upon itself at ORD in a matter of 2 years!

Lastly, based upon my own personal experience in 2004 flying KWI-AMS-ORD on Kuwait Airways, even for an 'air side transit' at any EU airport, Pakistani passport holders not having a U.S. green card require a transit visa for EU even if its a same plane service. If this rule still exists, then it will be a huge setback for PIA to attract normal Pakistani citizens holding only visit visas for USA to fly them versus another airline. To summarize, PIA must first consolidate its presence at JFK before further expanding its USA operations. If someone thinks they will do fine because they got 5th freedom rights on the Barcelona-Chicago route which sees them having a monopoly, then they should look at how badly PIA marketed and sold its Manchester-USA-Manchester flights when it had such traffic rights for JFK, Chicago and Houston few years ago!

Qatar Airways

Qatar Airways has officially revealed on the GDS that it will be undertaking few capacity and frequency changes for the Summer 2010 IATA season. The main highlights are as follows:

CAN - capacity increased from 5 weekly A 332s to 5 weekly B 773ERs.

BEY - frequencies increased from double to triple daily from June 16th.

COK - frequencies increased from daily to 9 weekly nonstop flights using an A 321 from Sept 1st.

LXR - frequencies increased from 4 weekly to daily nonstop flights using an A 320 from Sept 1st.

Comments:

Is there that much demand for QR to send a 335 seater B 77W to CAN? The only reason one can think of is because of the higher cargo payload that the B 77W can carry in its belly versus an A 333.

Royal Jordanian

Royal Jordanian has officially announced that it will be integrating into its fleet 2 used Airbus A 330-200s from April 2010 which shall be used to replace Airbus A 310-300 operated routes to London Heathrow and Far East Asia. These aircraft are those of the now defunct carrier Air Comet. In addition, RJ too confirmed that it shall be re launching flights to Kuala Lumpur which will be flown via Bangkok using an A 332.

Comments:

An excellent move by RJ to fast track its replacement of its aging A 310-300 fleet with more efficient aircraft such as the A 332. This will however be a temporary measure until the B 787-800s arrive from 2013 onwards. RJ too will be undertaking a massive refurbishment of the interior of its flagship A 340-200 fleet with new business class seats and an upgrade to its in flight entertainment in economy and business class.

Delta Airlines

Delta Airlines has officially revealed that it will be undertaking further capacity changes for the Summer 2010 IATA Season across its long haul route network. The main highlights are as follows:

ATL/LOS - frequencies reduced from daily to 6 weekly nonstop flights using a B 772ER.

JFK/BCN - capacity increased from daily B 763ER to daily B 764ER.

JFK/BOG - frequencies increased from 5 weekly to daily nonstop flights using a B 757.

JFK/DUB - capacity increased from daily B 763ER to daily B 764ER.

JFK/KBP - capacity reduced from 5 weekly B 764ERs to 5 weekly B 763ERs.

SFO/NRT - capacity reduced from daily A 332 to daily B 763ER.

NRT/PVG - capacity increased from daily A 332 to daily B 744.

NRT/SIN - frequencies reduced from daily to 6 weekly nonstop flights using a A 332.

NRT/PEK - capacity reduced from daily A 332 to daily B 763ER.

United Airlines

United Airlines has officially confirmed that it has placed a mega order with Boeing for 75 Boeing 787s, thus increasing its order by 50 air frames. Previously, UAL has placed an order for 25 B 787s + 50 options but now these 50 options have all been firmed up. The first batch of 25 B 787s will all be of the -800 variant designed to replace its entire Boeing 767-300ER fleet. The remaining aircraft are expected to be a combination of the -800 and larger -900 variants.

Kuwait Airways

Kuwait Airways has officially confirmed that it shall be increasing flights to CGP-Chittagong, Bangladesh from June 14th. Currently, the carrier operates two weekly nonstop flights using Airbus A 300-600R (AB6), however these shall be increased to 3 weekly nonstop flights from mid June onwards as KU looks to consolidate its monopolistic position in this key Bangladeshi market segment.

SN Brussels

SN Brussels Airlines has officially announced that it shall be launching services to 4 new West African cities from July 5th as the national carrier of Belgium looks to carve itself a nice little niche market for itself in West Africa and for Star Alliance. These 4 new destinations are Accra, Lome, Cotonou and Ouagadougou. The main highlights concerning frequencies per week to these cities are as follows:

ACC - 4 weekly flights using an A 333.

ABV - 6 weekly flights using an A 333.

LFW - 2 weekly flights using an A 333.

OUA - 2 weekly flights using an A 333.

COO - 2 weekly flights using an A 333.

Emirates

Emirates Chairman has officially announced that the Dubai based carrier will be ordering 10 wide bodied aircraft later on this year and is engaged in final talks with Boeing and Airbus for the Boeing 777-300ER and Airbus 330 line of aircraft. It is expected that the order will be formally announced at one of the major summer air shows in Europe. Industry insiders expect the order to go with Boeing for 10 B 77Ws which has been a favorite choice of aircraft for EK on a wide variety of its routes and which will enable them to further expand in major long haul markets worldwide.

Qantas

Qantas of Australia has officially announced that it will be undergoing a major fleet re configuration with regards to its A 380s and Boeing 747-400s in particular. On the priority list, is the abolishment of the entire first class cabin from 9 B 744s and 8 yet to be delivered A 380s. These first class seats shall be replaced with an expanded premium economy cabin which will help increase the on board capacity on offer as well as allow the carrier to meet current market trends which sees minimal demand for first class seats on board a majority of its routes. The routes that will continue to see first class from 2011 onwards shall be Singapore, London and Los Angeles mainly. With this re configuration, an extra 52 premium economy seats will be added on board its B 744s.

Qantas of Australia has officially confirmed that it will be increasing capacity on the Sydney-Tokyo route in a major manner from July 5th. Currently, it operates the route nonstop on a daily basis using an A 330-300 however this shall be increased to 6 times per week using a B 747-400 (2 class configuration J/Y) along with an A 333 once a week. To summarize, capacity is being increased by 1250 seats per week on offer by QF.

Air Canada

Air Canada has officially revealed major changes to its European schedule for the Summer 2010 peak season. The main highlights are as follows:

YOW/LHR - capacity increased from daily B 763ER to daily A 333 from June 1st till Sept 4th.

YYZ/CPH - frequencies reduced from daily to 5 weekly nonstop flights operated a B 763ER.

YYZ/DUB - frequencies reduced from daily to 6 weekly nonstop flights using a B 763ER.

YYZ/MAD - frequencies reduced from daily to 5 weekly nonstop flights using a B 763ER.

YYZ/ZRH - capacity reduced from daily A 333 to daily B 763ER.

Kingfisher Airines

Kingfisher Airlines has officially announced that it shall be launching new flights to London Heathrow and Hong Kong from Delhi, India. Flights to LHR shall be flown on a daily basis using an A 332 effective March 28th where as services to HKG will be operated 6 times per week using the same aircraft type but from April 7th. The flight schedules are as follows:

DEL-LHR-DEL...daily

IT 001 Dep DEL 1320 Arr LHR 1810
IT 002 Dep LHR 2105 Arr DEL 1020+1

DEL-HKG-DEL...6 times per week (no flights on TUE)

IT 031 Dep DEL 2330 Arr HKG 0725+1
IT 032 Dep HKG 1805 Arr DEL 2110

Jet Airways India

Jet Airways of India has officially confirmed that it shall be launching new daily nonstop flights from its BOM-Mumbai hub to JNB-Jo'Burg in South Africa from April 14th. 9W shall be using an A 330-200 for this route and its flight schedule allows good connections via BOM to HKG, BKK, BRU and North America in both directions. The flight schedule is as follows:

9W 242 Dep BOM 0205 Arr JNB 0735
9W 241 Dep JNB 1100 Arr BOM 2330

Malaysia Airlines

Malaysia Airlines has officially confirmed that it shall be increasing its flights to MLE-Male, Maldives from June 15th onwards citing high demand from SE Asia for the move. All flights to MLE will be flown nonstop from its KUL base but out of the daily flights, four of those shall be flown back to KUL via CMB-Colombo. The 3 weekly terminator flights shall be operated by a Boeing 737-800 where as the flights that return via CMB are being flown using the larger Airbus A 330-300.

Aerolineas Argentina

Aerolineas Argentina has officially announced that it is in talks with leasing companies to arrange for up to 15 Boeing 787s for delivery starting from 2011 as the carrier looks to start gradually replacing its aging A 340-200 fleet with modern wide bodied aircraft. In addition, two A 340-300s are being seriously looked at to be integrated into the current fleet in order to launch new nonstop flights to Mexico City as well as re launch nonstop flights to New York JFK and London.

Qatar Airways

Qatar Airways will be shortly officially announcing the launch of new nonstop flights to South America namely São Paulo and Buenos Aires. The flight will be launched on 30th May and shall be operated daily using a Boeing 777-200LR with the routing being DOH-GRU-EZE. QR will also enjoy 5th freedom traffic rights on the GRU-EZE-GRU sector. The flight schedule is as follows:

Days of operation: DAILY

QR921 DOH 0800 Arr GRU 1700 /// QR 921 Dep GRU 1840 Arr EZE 2130

QR 922 Dep EZE 0035 Arr GRU 0325 /// QR 922 Dep GRU 0440 Arr DOH 0040+1

Qatar Airways has officially confirmed that it will be increasing its flights to Dhaka, Bangladesh from March 28th onwards. Currently, it operats a daily service using a mixture of A 333s and A 332s, however this shall be increased to 11 times per week using a 2 class configured A 332 for all of the flights. The additional 4 weekly flights allow for the first time Dhaka to be connected via DOH to all USA and European destinations in both directions which shall definitely help increase loads to JFK and IAH in particular.

Comments:

Its quite evident that QR want to get into EZE before EK does which is good. However realistically speaking, does anyone really think that QR has even a remote chance of making money flying this route or let alone break even? The answer to that question is no! These 2 B 777-200LRs would be better served flying daily DOH-ORD-DOH rather than to Latin America just because of the logic that EK flies there hence QR must follow suit! Apart from this, the focus should also be to get ADD online due to the huge O&D market that exists between DOH and ADD along with the 6th freedom traffic potential bound to IAD, UK, ATH, India, China and BKK in particular. A daily A 320 between DOH and ADD would be ideal to serve the needs of this market segment initially.

As one can make out from the flight schedule, the main target market is Far East Asia passengers via DOH and a little bit of GCC bound traffic as well. From Brazil to Far East, QR will face stiff competition from EK/AC/LH/AF/TK/SAA/BA/KL which will further dilute yields and market share of every one. FYI, QR's B 77Ls seat 259 in a 2 class (J/Y) configuration i.e. 42J + 217Y.

Turkish Airlines

Turkish Airlines has officially announced that they have placed a mega order with Boeing this week for the purchase of 35 new Boeing 737NGs. The order split consists of 10 Boeing 737-900ERs plus 10 Boeing 737-800s plus 15 options for either aircraft type. This is on top of another order placed by the airline last month for 6 A 319s + 14 A 321s!

Comments:

Just like when they ordered the A 319s and A 321s a month ago, I am once again stating my opinion which is that this massive fleet expansion by undertaken by TK is unreasonable and they are biting off more than what they can chew! What is the point of ordering B 739ERs when you already have A 321s in the fleet which can easily fly to all the high density short/medium haul destinations with the same payload !

Etihad Airways

Etihad Airways has revealed major changes in the GDS for the Summer 2010 IATA season in terms of capacity increases mainly across its medium haul network. The main highlights are as follows:

LHE - capacity increased from March 30th by 40% to 3 weekly B 773ERs + 4 weekly A 346s. Effective June 13th, capacity will be further increased with a 4th weekly flight operated by a B 773ER on Mondays!

MAN - capacity increased from June 7th from daily A 332 to daily nonstop flights using a B 773ER.

FRA - capacity increase effective May 14th from double daily A 332s to 2 weekly A 346s + 12 weekly A 332s.

DUB - frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly nonstop flights using an A 332.

KHI - capacity increased from daily A 320 to 5 weekly A 320 + weekly A 332 + weekly A 346.

Comments:

The B 773ERs from LHE will be a 3 weekly same plane service via AUH to YYZ-Toronto where as the A 346s will be a same plane service to JFK. Both moves are meant to severely impact PIA and EK's market share on these sectors with which the right marketing and sales tools can reap high rewards for EY.

FYI, the majority of Pakistanis (65%) residing in NYC and YYZ hail from the Punjab region of Pakistan of which LHE airport is their main gateway point. It is also worth mentioning that fares to LHE are usually 15% higher versus KHI as well hence higher yielding too for carriers!

British Airways

British Airways has officially revealed major changes to its long haul network for the Summer 2010 IATA season in terms of frequencies and capacity. The main highlights are as follows:

DXB - frequencies reduced from triple daily to double daily flights i.e. 10 weekly B 772ERs + 4 weekly B 744s.

PEK - capacity reduced from daily B 744 to daily B 772ER.

IAH - capacity increased from double daily B 772ERs to daily B 744 + daily B 772ER.

Thai Airways

Thai Airways has officially revealed that it will be suspending all of its flights to KWI-Kuwait City from March 28th after just launching nonstop services on this sector a year prior. No reason has been cited for the move. TG also confirmed that it will be launching new 4 weekly nonstop flights to JNB-Jo'Burg from May 17th from its BKK hub using a Boeing 777-200ER. The flight schedule is as follows:

Days of operation: MON/WED/FRI/SAT

TG 703 Dep BKK 0115 Arr JNB 0730
TG 704 Dep JNB 1340 Arr BKK 0555+1

Thai Airways has officially announced that they will be increasing capacity to Islamabad, Colombo and Chennai from the on set of the IATA Summer 2010 season. All flights to these 3 destinations are currently being flown with an Airbus A 300-600R, however from March 28th, these cities will see flights operated by the larger and more modern Airbus A 330-300. In addition, TG has also announced that it has set aside a budget of US$ 1.1 billion to purchase 15 wide bodied aircraft this year of which it said 8 will be 350 seater aircraft where as the remaining 7 will be 300 seaters. The eight 350 seater aircraft will be exclusively deployed on long haul routes where as the 300 seater aircraft will be used on regional flights within Asia.

Analysis:

For the 350 seater aircraft order, TG should be ordering the Boeing 777-300ER only because it is the ideal aircraft to use on long haul flights to Europe, JNB and Australia versus the Airbus A 340-600. TG has both the B 777s and A 346s in its current fleet but only B 772s. The operating cost of a B 77W versus an A 346 are in favor of the B 77W by nearly 20%.With regards to the cabin configuration, one hopes that TG does not install a first class cabin on board the 350 seater aircraft because it is not needed one bit. It must realize that it is based out of BKK which is primarily a leisure oriented city and not SIN which is a financial hub hence witnessing more premium class travel ! If the B 77W is indeed ordered by TG, the best configuration for it to have on board is 36 business class + 315 in economy class. As far as the 300 seater aircraft is concerned, it would be best to stick to ordering the A 333 of which it already has 15 of in the fleet. These aircraft are needed to gradually fully replace the14 A 300-600Rs being used on domestic and regional Asian routes.

Another thing that TG need to seriously look at is the current configuration of their fleet of 6 A 346s which seats 267 pax with the break up being 8 in first + 60 in business + 199 in economy. Everybody knows that such a configuration for a large aircraft such as the A 346 and for an airline like TG is totally ludicrous because the high volume premium demand isn't that great for the routes that it deploys them on. For it to use the A 346s in a more cost efficient manner on long haul routes, all aircraft should be sent for a cabin re-fit with the configuration being 8 in first class + 36 in business class + 264 in economy class with the total count thus increased from 267 to 308 which is better as it will help bring down operating cost per seat kilometer on long haul routes. There is no need what so ever for TG to have any aircraft in its fleet containing 60 J class seats as the demand isnt there especially in this current economic climate.

Malaysia Airlines

Malaysia Airlines has officially announced that it will be increasing frequencies to Melbourne, Australia from the on set of the IATA Summer 2010 season i.e. March 28th. Flights will be increased from the current 11 weekly nonstop services using a Boeing 777-200ER to double daily nonstop using the same aircraft type.

In addition, MH has too confirmed that its flights to HYD-Hyderabad, India will too see an increase from 4 to 5 weekly nonstop flights using a Boeing 737-800.