Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Malaysia Airlines increases Austral-Asia capacity in Summer 2018

Malaysia Airlines has officially announced that it will be aggressively increasing capacity in key markets where there is both high volume passenger plus cargo demand from the on set of the IATA S18 season. The main highlights are as follows:

ADL - frequencies increased from 4 to 5 weekly using an A333

DPS - capacity increased from triple daily B738 to daily A332 + double daily B738

ICN - frequencies increased from 10 to 12 weekly using an A330

DAC - frequencies increased from 2 to 3 daily effective 01AUG i.e. daily A332 + double daily B738

PVG - capacity increased to double daily A330s

PER - frequencies increased from daily to 12 weekly B738s

NRT - frequencies from 10 to 12 weekly using an A330

Singapore Airlines increases Auckland frequencies

Singapore Airlines has officially announced that due to rising demand both from its home hub base as well as from Europe especially UK for its Auckland bound services, it shall be increasing frequencies as a result from the on set of the IATA W18 season. 

Currently, SQ operates to AKL daily nonstop using an A380, however from 28OCT these will be boosted to double daily i.e. daily A380 + daily B77W.

Monday, December 4, 2017

Qatar Airways increases Rome and Milan

Qatar Airways has officially announced that it shall be increasing its footprint in Italy with additional frequencies to both Rome and Milan effective 21Dec17 onwards.

FCO - services increased from 14 to 17 weekly

MXP - services also increased from 14 to 17 weekly

Friday, December 1, 2017

Air China announces major European capacity increases

Air China has officially announced that due to consistent rising demand between mainland China and the top metro cities of Europe, it shall be embarking on an aggressive expansion plan to Europe from the on set of the IATA S18 season. The main highlights are as follows:

PVG/CDG - frequencies increased from 5 to 6 weekly nonstop flights using an A332

PVG/BCN - frequencies increased from 3 to 4 weekly nonstop flights using an A332 

CTU/CDG - capacity increased from 3 weekly A332s to 3 weekly A333s

PEK/FCO - capacity increased from daily B789 to daily B77W (2 class)

PEK/LHR - capacity increased to double daily B77Ws from daily A333 + daily B77W

PEK/MUC - capacity increased from daily A332 to daily B77W (3 class)

PEK/ATH - frequencies increased from 2 to 3 weekly flights using an A332

Kuwait Airways increases Cairo, Colombo and Dhaka frequencies


Kuwait Airways has announced that as part of its network expansion transformation program that has been in place since over a year now, it will be increasing its frequencies to Colombo, Cairo and Dhaka effective December 2017 onwards in the following manner:

CAI - frequencies increased from double daily to 16 weekly flights effective 21DEC17 i.e. 11 weekly B77Ws + 2 weekly A332s + 3 weekly A320s

CMB - frequencies increased from 8 to 10 weekly nonstop flights using an A332 exclusively effective 04DEC17

DAC - frequencies increased from 10 to 12 weekly nonstop flights using a B77W exclusively effective 01JAN18

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Egypt Air places a huge order at the Dubai Air Show


Egypt Air has officially announced that it has placed an order with Bombardier at the Dubai Air show today for 24 C Series 300 aircraft. 

The breakdown is 12 firm plus 12 options and shall be initially used to fully replace its Egypt Air Express fleet of 10 E70s. 

The realistic flying range capability of the C300 out of CAI airport during summer season can be seen on the map below:

*Official stated payload range has been penalized by 30% in chart below taking into account CAI summer weather and 105kg average pax weight 

*Eastbound it can fly nonstop up to Karachi

*Westbound nonstop up to Manchester or Lisbon

*Southbound nonstop up to Accra, Dar Es Salaam and Kinshasa

map

In addition to the above, MS also announced it has placed an order for 6 new Boeing 787-9s + 15 Airbus A320NEOs. The latter will be used to replace its existing fleet of 4 A320s + a few of its oldest B738s. 

The B789 will be used to expand its long haul inter-continental network with flights to Washington DC from Cairo expected to be launched as the first new route operated by this aircraft type. 

The realistic flying range capability of the B789 with a full payload of 290 pax approximately out of CAI airport in summer season is mentioned below:

* Official published range of B789 penalized by -25% 
* For Cairo-Houston, there will be a payload restriction
* No payload issues for any Southeast Asian route + Sao Paulo
* Aircraft cannot operate from CAI to Australia nonstop 

map

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Ethiopian Airlines orders 4 more B777Fs

Ethiopian Airlines has officially announced at the on going Dubai air show that they have placed an additional order for 4 Boeing 777-200LR freighters. 

ET currently has 6 B77Fs in its fleet and these incremental 4 will be used to expand its freighter network as per the CEO. 

Sunday, November 12, 2017

my analysis on Emirates ordering 40 Boeing 787-10s

Emirates has officially announced that it has placed an order for 40 Boeing 787-10s worth US$15 billion at list prices. These are the largest variant currently available on the Boeing 787 family line.

The other airlines that have placed an order for the B781 version are as follows:

BA 12
EY 30
BR 18
SQ 49
UA 14
AF 8
NH 3
Total - 134 versus 689 for the B789 and 423 for the B788

For some time now, EK has realized that their fleet strategy of it being revolved around the B77W and A380 only was not working as the B77W was for logical reasons too big of an aircraft to be considered its smallest type. Though EK has a fleet of 10 B777-200LRs which are actually its smallest aircraft, it is used on dedicated ultra long haul routes primarily where the B77W cannot operate to.

The B781 is similar in size to the A333 and B772 but has better operating economics due to its more modern technology. In fact compared to the B77W, Boeing has officially stated in its EK B781 order press release, that the fuel consumption savings alone for the B781 is 25% less per flight!

Source: http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2017-11-12-Boeing-Emirates-Announce-Commitment-for-40-787-10-Dreamliners

As far as the placement of this order is concerned, there are positives and negatives. The positives are as follows:

1. EK desperately needed a smaller aircraft in the 250-330 seat range which they lost out on since the retirement of their A332s over a year ago. 

2. The B781 is an ideal medium density aircraft for regional operations to the Indian subcontinent, Africa and Europe plus can cover all of EK's Southeast Asia network easily with a full payload of pax + cargo. The realistic maximum flying range capability out of DXB airport for this aircraft type is 10 hours 30 minutes.  

3. Mega operational cost savings to be incurred over the long run by deploying this aircraft variant instead of the B77W on routes where the latter is deemed too big. 

4. The LOPA is not yet known but in a 2 class configuration, the B781 can seat 330 passengers whilst in 3 classes it is 290. 

5. The usefulness of having a 330 seater B781 for EK can also be looked at in a manner on which they operate on certain sectors where they are limited in terms of seating capacity per week. For example, on DXB-HYD if EK is limited to fly 7,945 seats per week, they currently do so by flying triple daily B77Ws. If they switched over to B781s exclusively, they can increase frequency by operating 24 flights per week using a 2 class 330 seater version or 27 flights per week using a 3 class version compared to 21 on a B777-300ER!

The negatives are as follows:
    
1. The realistic flying range capability of the B787-10 out of DXB airport during summer season is mentioned below with the brightly colored area being reachable whilst the dark shaded area being untenable. 

2. As you can make out from the range map below, the B781 can on a normal day during the IATA summer season fly a maximum of 9,500 km nonstop from DXB airport which means it cannot operate to any North American/South American and Australian destination nonstop with a full payload with the exception of Perth but on the return PER-DXB there will be a payload penalty in place. 

map

3. By not ordering the longer range B789 which can cover the U.S. East Coast + PER, it does not provide EK with the scheduling + cost saving flexibility to downgrade flights during the low season period between FEB-MAY + OCT-NOV. For example, a B789 operated DXB-BOS-DXB round trip flight at a total net cost level would cost EK approximately US$112,000 less versus using a B77W. This same sensible approach has been adopted by Qatar Airways who downgraded many U.S. East Coast flights due to seasonal demand fluctuations from a B777 to a B788/A359.  

4. EK actually needed a 280-290 seater aircraft to be their smallest wide body and not a 330 seater B781. In this way the fleet layout would have looked more reasonable as follows:

B789 - 280 seats (2 class) or 250 seats (3 class)
B77W - 427 seats (2 class) or 354 seats (3 class)
A380 - 615 seats (2 class) or 489 seats (3 class) 

The above is a much more commercially acceptable aircraft capacity distribution.  


5. New USA routes requiring a 250-300 seater sized aircraft such as PHL and DTW cannot be operated with a B781

To conclude, this order was very much needed by both Boeing and Emirates as it helps increase for the former especially the residual value and credit-ability of the B781. It gives EK good positive PR in USA with the Trump Administration in particular as the order is worth US$15 billion and will stimulate new local jobs for sure.  

Hopefully down the road, EK management decide on converting at least 10 of the B781s to 12 B789s as it will really help them all round over the long run.
Plus it can enable them sensibly to launch new routes such as DTW and PHL with a smaller B789 versus a more expensive B77W.  

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Ethiopian announces Chicago, Geneva and Shenzhen

The CEO of Ethiopian Airlines has officially announced that the carrier would launch 3 new long haul destinations from June 2018 as part of its aggressive global expansion plan.

The new routes are to Chicago, Geneva and Shenzhen. This would provide SHE and ORD's first direct link to Africa whilst GVA already has Tunisair operating along with other carriers to North Africa in particular. 

The routing for ORD is not yet announced but going by the trend of its current North American operations, it is likely to be flown via DUB. 

Source: http://thereporterethiopia.com/article/ethiopian-fly-chicago

Comments:

ET should have instead launched Houston via Lagos with a B787 or A350 operated 3-4 times per week as the yields + demand are much higher for this segment versus Chicago. 

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Etihad to suspend Dallas flights


Etihad Airways
has officially announced that due to the commercial reasons it shall be suspending all its daily flights to Dallas, USA effective 25MAR18. EY blames the suspension of its code share relationship with American Airlines for this pullout as it has been badly impacted with the loss of this vital feed.


EY operates currently to DFW nonstop from AUH on a daily basis using a B777-200LR.

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Hawaiian confirms A330NEOs will not be taken

Hawaiian Airlines CEO has officially confirmed that the airline will no longer be taking delivery of its 6 Airbus A330-800NEOs and is seeking alternate aircraft for its long haul expansion program. 

HA wants aircraft that can operate with a full payload on 15-16 hour flights to London and mainland Europe on a year round basis from HNL airport.

Source: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/hawaiian-seeking-a330-800neo-alternatives-ceo-442337/

Comments:

Its best if HA exchange it for Airbus A350-900s and transfer over the deposits to that. 

China Southern orders 38 additional Boeing planes

China Southern Airlines has officially announced that it has placed a multi-billion dollar order with Boeing for the purchase of 38 narrow body and wide body jets. The breakdown is 8 Boeing 777-300ERs plus 30 Boeing 737 MAX8s. 

CZ currently has 10 B77Ws operating in its fleet configured with 309 passengers in a 4 class cabin layout. It is expected to base these incremental ordered aircraft at its upcoming new Beijing Daxing airport base. 

Source: https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/60650-china-southern-places-order-for-b777-300er-max-8s

Friday, October 13, 2017

Austrian studying wide body replacement

The CEO of Austrian Airlines has officially announced that the carrier has begun studying placing a large order for wide body aircraft to fully replace its aging fleet of 6 B767-300ERs + Boeing 777-200ERs from 2019 onwards. The carrier needs newer, more efficient aircraft to offer a more competitive product offering as well as operational cost savings in the long run.

Link: http://atwonline.com/airframes/ceo-austrian-airlines-must-begin-replacing-long-haul-fleet-2019-20

Comments:

By the end of Q1 2018, OS shall have 12 wide body aircraft in its fleet i.e. 6 B772ERs + 6 B763ERs. Their B777s have 48J + 264Y seating 312 pax in total whilst the B763s have 225 (26J + 199Y). It is too small of a fleet to have 2 different variant types and from a commercial standpoint, the B787 family is the ideal logical replacement.

Please note that even though new aircraft are expensive, this is a long term (20 year) investment that OS shall be doing with these aircraft hence buying 7-10 year old A330s and B777s isn't the right thing to do. To cater for future growth, OS needs to order 15 WB aircraft i.e. B787s as follows:

5 B788s + 7 B789s + 3 options

If demand for certain routes sees a big upswing in the mid 2020s, then the 3 options should be converted to the larger B787-10. If not then the options should be for the B789 variant. The B788 would seat 30J + 198Y comfortably so 228 seats in total whilst the B789 would seat 291 i.e. 30J + 261Y. Do note that EL AL went for the exact same above fleet plan strategy for the 2020-2030 period i.e. replacing their B767s/B777s and B744s with all 3 B787 variant types. 

One also does not see the need for 17 E95s in their fleet. These planes should be gotten rid off by 2021 along with their 7 A319s. In turn 25 Bombardier C300s should be ordered to replace both types as the long term savings incurred by operating the CS3 versus these 2 types with 25 aircraft is massive. The NB fleet part i.e. 23 A320s + 6 A321s should all be replaced with 30 A321NEOs.

Therefore, the future fleet in an ideal commercial scenario for the 2020-2030 period for OS should look like this:

i. 15 B787s for WB seating between 220-290 pax
ii. 30 A321NEO for high density intra-EU flying seating 200 pax
iii. 25 C300 for medium demand destinations seating 135 pax and operating within a 5.5 hour flying time radius
iv. 18 Q400s (they already operate 18 of the type) seating 76 pax and operating with 1-2 hours flying time radius 

Total fleet size 88 aircraft

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Ethiopian increases Toronto flights

Ethiopian Airlines has officially announced that it has been awarded additional bilateral access to Canada and as a result of which will boost its services to YYZ-Toronto effective 02DEC17.

From 02DEC17 onwards, ET will increase its ADD-YYZ flights from the current 3 to 5 weekly using a B787 for all services.


Friday, October 6, 2017

PIA suspends New York JFK flights

PIA has officially announced via filing across major GDS systems, that will be sending all of its New York JFK bound flights effective 01NOV17 due to continued high losses amidst lower yields and increasing competition from the Middle East carriers. 

Currently, in S17 season, PIA flew 3 weekly KHI-LHE-MAN-JFK flights using a B777-200ER and demand from JFK to PAK in 2016 was as follows:

*Round trip pax*

LHE 101,000
KHI 62,000
ISB 43,000

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Emirates increases Stockholm services

Emirates has officially announced that due to increasing demand for both passenger and cargo, it shall be boosting its services to ARN-Stockholm effective 08DEC17.

Current daily nonstop flights will be increased to 10 weekly using a B777-300ER with the 3 new services departing DXB at 1500 on Fri/Sat/Sun. 


Monday, October 2, 2017

Air Arabia reduces Bangladesh flights

Air Arabia has officially announced that it will be reducing its presence in Bangladesh from the on set of the IATA W17 season as follows:

DAC - frequencies reduced from 25 weekly to triple daily nonstop using an A320

CGP - frequencies reduced from 13 to 10 weekly nonstop flights using an A320

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Oman Air suspends Chittagong flights

Oman Air has officially announced via publishing on major GDS systems that it shall be exiting the Bangladeshi market totally effective 31OCT17.

This is as a result of their lone surviving Bangladeshi route i.e. Chittagong (CGP) being suspended from the above mentioned date. Currently, WY operates 5 weekly B738s nonstop from MCT to CGP. WY had already suspended DAC-MCT flights since May 2017.

The GCC carriers now remaining in CGP are Fly Dubai who fly a daily DXB-CGP service + 10 weekly Air Arabia who operate from SHJ. G9 actually is reducing CGP from 13 weekly to 10 weekly effective 01NOV. 




Saturday, September 30, 2017

China Airlines announces Ontario-Taipei nonstop


Taiwan's national carrier i.e. China Airlines based out of Taipei airport officially announced that will be officially launching new nonstop flights to Ontario, California (ONT) which is a suburb of Los Angeles effective April 2018. 

CI will be operating the new nonstop TPE-ONT flights 4 times per week using a B777-300ER after an intensive lobbying campaign by local Ontario officials desperate for a trans-pacific long haul link to cater for the huge Asian community residing in this part of the greater Los Angeles area. 

News link: http://www.dailybulletin.com/2017/09/29/china-airlines-announces-nonstop-weekly-flights-to-ontario-airport-in-spring-2018/

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Turkish Airlines orders 40 Boeing 787-9s


Turkish Airlines has officially announced that it has placed a US$ 11 billion order with Boeing for 40 B787-9s after a long process studying the Airbus A350-900, Boeing 747-8 and Airbus A380 aircraft.
These B789s will be initially used to replace TK's aging A330-200 fleet from 2023 onwards as the oldest A332s were delivered between 2005-06. 
Though no configuration layout has been revealed, it is expected that TK's B789s would seat 291 passengers in a 2 class layout i.e. 30J + 261Y. With this cabin configuration, it is also the ideal replacement aircraft (size and range wise) for its A333 fleet between 2025-28. 
The B789 can fly all of TK's current routes nonstop with a full payload of pax + cargo but for it to launch nonstop services to SYD/MEL, it will need to either order the Boeing 777-8X or have a less dense B789 cabin configuration (with more J class seats similar to what QF is going to use on PER-LHR effective March 2018).
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/boeing-lands-11-billion-787-deal-from-resurgent-turkish-air






Comments:

This is a very smart decision made by TK as:

1. The B789 would likely seat 291 pax in a dual class layout i.e. 30J + 261Y thus enabling it to be used to replace both its 250 seater A332s and 289 seater A333s between 2023-2030. 

2. The B789 can operate all of TK's current long haul routes nonstop without any payload issues

3. It is cheaper to purchase versus the A359

4. By placing an initial order for 40 units, it has smartly locked in favorable pricing conditions as this aircraft will appreciate in value over time hence once it gets delivered, TK can engage in a sale-leaseback transaction which would have a decent cash profit margin for the carrier. 

5. Hopefully this would mean that their future WB fleet would revolve around 2 types only i.e. B777 and B787 rather than 3 i.e. with the A359 included as there is now no real need to order the A359 for them. Fleet standardization is a must which will enable them to save big time in cost savings over the long run. 

6. I am quite sure TK would have options for the larger B781 incorporated into this order in case they feel the need to upgrade for some high demand medium range flights. The B781 would likely seat 329 pax i.e. 30J + 299Y in a 2 class layout for TK (if ordered) so about 38 more seats than the B789 overall approximately.

For sure this has gained the Turkish Govt major brownie points with the Trump Administration for which they will be suitably rewarded through other means!