Abu Dhabi and India
have signed a radically liberalized new
bilateral accord giving each other the right to increase capacity from the current
13,000 seats per week to over 50,000 in three gradual stages by 2015. This is
as a result of the 24% investment that Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways made into Jet
Airways of which the latter will establish a new scissors hub at Abu Dhabi
airport feeding into Etihad’s vast European/MENA and North American network
from all across India. As far as the 5th freedom rights beyond AUH
are concerned, 9W revealed that it is interested in operating new flights to
Najaf, Cairo, Beirut and Amman via AUH in the future using Boeing
737-800s/900ERs.
Analysis:
Etihad must be
laughing all the way to the bank with this bilateral announcement as from AUH they will get 100% of the
allocation. Taking this into account, one would advise EY to increase its order
of 7 A321s to at least 10 as it will require such aircraft to operate double
daily services to the high demand markets of COK, DEL, BOM, TRV, MAA and CCJ in
particular due to its better operating economics versus the smaller A320s. To
operate a double daily A321 service into these Indian cities, EY would require
a minimum of 6 A321s dedicated for India and use the remaining 4 for other
network routes such as KHI, PEW, CAI, CMB, the newly added LHE/ISB flights, JED,
BEY, RUH and KRT.
However what will be
interesting to see is how the Indian carriers will utilize the extra 12,000
seats given to them incrementally annually till 2015 as there is no way Spice
Jet, Air India Express and Indigo will allow Jet Airways to take the lion’s
share as these 3 carriers too have future expansion plans from all across India
into AUH built into their forecasts. If 9W really want to feed EY, they should
initially focus on supporting EY with flights from Indian cities not operated by
EY but can supply it with good feeder traffic beyond the AUH hub. These include
CCU, PNQ, GOI, ATQ, LKO and JAI.
The state of Qatar and Ethiopia have
officially announced that the two countries have officially signed a newbilateral accord allowing
for the national carriers of both countries to launch services. The bilateral
permits for daily frequencies from each side. QR has been lobbying for many
years to operate to ADD due to the large demand from the country for its prime
GCC home market.
Analysis:
In order to ensure that QR reaps the maximum
benefit, they need to launch ADD with a split schedule so that all the major
markets beyond the GCC region are covered adequately with quick connections
via DOH in both directions. Therefore the flight scheduling options should be
as follows:
4 weekly day time services *This will ensure good 2 way connections to GCC, ISC and certain SE Asian destinations. QR XXX Dep DOH 0950 Arr ADD 1330 QR XXX Dep ADD 1430 Arr DOH 1805 3 weekly overnight services *This will ensure good 2 way connections to GCC, North America and Europe QR XXX Dep DOH 2140 Arr ADD 0120+1 QR XXX Dep ADD 0220 Arr DOH 0555 If daily operations are not allowed and only 4 weekly are, then each of the above should be flown twice a week as the main focus will be O&D + GCC bound traffic which is connected very well via DOH with the proposed schedule. Also regardless if 4 or daily frequencies are allowed, QR needs to utilize for 2 weekly flights at least an A330 (preferably on daytime services) as the yield and cargo revenue to/from ADD is very lucrative all across QR's network. Plus with the big market sizes on offer, it can easily fill an A330 year round on this medium haul route at 80-85% in the passenger cabin.
ADD-GCC market sizes in 2012 were HUGE and
very high yielding at the same time. There is only EK,
ET
and 3 weekly GF A320s to contend with as the SV flights mainly target KSA bound pax only.
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Emirates
has officially announced that it will be launching a new nonstop service to
ARN-Stockholm effective 04SEP13 as the carrier looks to further expand its
presence in the economically stable Scandinavian region. EK will be deploying
the 350 seater Boeing 777-300ER from the on set to operate this new service
with the below mentioned schedule:
EK 157 Dep DXB 0715 Arr ARN 1200
EK 158 Dep ARN 1355 Arr DXB 2255
The above schedule connects very well with its 5-6am arrival
hub wave bank from SE Asia, India, GCC, Australia and certain African points
where as the arrival from ARN into DXB connects nicely to the 0200-0330
departure hub wave bank to all over Australia, SE Asia and ISC region. The top markets
that EK will be targeting to feed its ARN bound flights are BKK, DXB, DEL, BOM,
PEK, IKA, HKG, Iraq, PVG, NRT and MNL.
EK too revealed that it shall be increasing its services to New York-JFK with the addition of a third
daily frequency operated via Milan on a daily basis with 5th
freedom traffic rights. A Boeing 777-300ER shall be used to operate the new
service effective 01OCT13. The new flight departs DXB at 0905 and arrives back
by 2230 the following evening.
British Airways has officially announced that it will be increasing its services to Seattle,
USA effective 27OCT13 as the carrier looks to defend and increase its
market share on this key route before Delta Airlines launches its own new
SEA-LHR services. Frequencies by BA shall be upgraded from daily to 10 weekly
nonstop flights using a B744 daily + 3 weekly B772ERs. The new flights depart
LHR at 0920 and arrive back the next day at 0730 thus offering excellent
connections via the LHR hub to India, Europe, Middle East and Africa. In
addition to SEA, BA too revealed that from the onset of the IATA Summer 2014
schedule, it will be adjusting capacity
to LAX-Los Angeles, USA by operating double daily A380 nonstop services instead
of triple daily B747-400 operated flights as a double daily A380 will offer
more or less the same seating capacity per day but the cost of operating 2
flights versus 3 is significantly lower hence the logic for the move.
In other BA related news, the airline revealed that it has placed a historical debut order with Airbus
to supply it with long haul jets. An order for 36 Airbus A350-1000Xs was
placed by the British flag carrier (the largest of the A350 family) and this
aircraft type has been officially designated to replace the 52 strong Boeing
747-400 fleet. BA ordered 18 firm + 18 options of the A351s and is expected
over the course of this decade to gradually exercise these options.
Qatar Airways has revealed on the
GDS system that it will be suspending
all flights to NCE-Nice, France currently operated 3 times per week using
an A330 via Milan. The suspension comes into effect from 31MAY13. By offering a
sub-standard 3 weekly two stop product for its NCE passengers versus a more
convenient daily one stop option offered by EK, TK, LH, KLM, AF etc, QR was
bound to fail along with the fact that the Boeing 787 groundings didn’t make
life easier too for the carrier from a scheduling perspective.
Etihad Airways has officially
announced that it shall be launching 2
new destinations this summer as it targets emerging markets that can act as
good feeder destinations for its wide body operated Austral-Asia bound flights.
The main highlights are as follows:
BEG
– new daily nonstop service to be operated using an A320 effective 15JUN. This
service is in line with EY purchasing a 49% stake in JAT Airways who in turn
will code share on this new route as well as beyond via AUH to Australia and SE
Asia. EY in return will code share with JAT via BEG to all across Russia and
Europe.
SAH
– new 4 weekly nonstop flights to be launched using an A320 and to be operated
as all overnight services only departing AUH at 2245 and arriving back by 0650
thus targeting primarily GCC and Europe bound traffic.
Cathay Pacific has officially
announced that it will be increasing
capacity to Toronto, Los Angeles, Bangkok, New York JFK and Seoul this year
in order to be ultra aggressive against ever expanding long haul competition
especially from PAL and the Taiwanese carriers. The main highlights are as
follows:
LAX
– frequencies increased from 20 weekly to triple daily and maintained in W13; all
operated with B773ERs
YYZ
– frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly in W13; all operated with
B773ERs
BKK
– frequencies increased from 6 to 7 times daily
ICN
– frequencies increased from 4 to 5 daily flights
JFK
– frequencies increased from 18 weekly to triple daily; all operated with
B773ERs
UAE and Nepal have officially
announced that their respective civil aviation authorities have struck a deal to further liberalize air traffic
between the two countries. Currently 42 flights per week are allowed between
the two states overall, but this has now been increased to 70 flights per week
for each country’s designated carriers combined. The biggest UAE presence in
KTM is of Fly Dubai who operate a double daily 189 seater B738 service on the
DXB-KTM route. Emirates surprisingly does not fly to KTM though it can easily
fill up a double daily operated Airbus A330-200 service into the airport with
its GCC, KSA and European network alone.
Turkish Airlines has officially
announced that it has placed a major order with Boeing for 95 Boeing 737s worth
US4 9.4 billion at list prices of which the breakdown is as follows:
40 Boeing 737-800MAXs + 10 Boeing 737-900MAXs + 20 Boeing 737-800Xs
+ 25 options on the B738MAX version
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