Sunday, August 13, 2017

Jet Airways announces Delhi-Riyadh


India’s Jet Airways has officially revealed that it shall be expanding its services to Saudi Arabia with a new nonstop flight from Delhi to Riyadh. 

The new route will be flown on a daily basis using a B737-800 effective 29OCT17 scheduled as follows:

9W 216 Dep DEL 2300 Arr RUH 0135+
9W 215 Dep RUH 0310 Arr DEL 0945


In 2016, the P2P demand between DEL and RUH was 268,000 passengers. 

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Mumbai flights increased by Oman Air


Oman Air
has quietly revealed that it has increased its services to BOM-Mumbai, India after getting slot approval. Current double daily flights have been boosted to triple daily exclusively operated by a mix of B738s and B739s only. The new third daily flight is scheduled as follows:

Days – Daily

Aircraft – B738


WY 205 Dep MCT 2240 Arr BOM 0300+1
WY 206 Dep BOM 0405 Arr MCT 0515

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

British Airways reveals major USA 2018 expansion plan

British Airways announces major USA capacity from May 2018 as the carrier looks to strengthen its market share with AA in light of the impending threat it sees with the new AF DL VS KL joint venture.

The main highlights are as follows:

Chicago - newest A380 destination operated daily

Nashville - new 5 weekly B787 flights to be launched


PHX and PHL - frequencies to be increased to both cities from current daily to 10 weekly with all PHX flights in particular being exclusively operated by the B747-400 whilst PHL receives a daily B744 + 3 weekly B772ER

Saturday, August 5, 2017

Colombo and Dhaka increased by Qatar Airways


Qatar Airways has officially published for sale another round of capacity increases for both S17 and W17 seasons of which the main highlights are as follows:

CMB - originally it increased this route from 3 to 4 daily effective 01AUG, however from 01SEP onwards it further gets boosted to 5 daily using a variety of aircraft types

DAC - frequencies increased from 2 to 3 daily effective 01SEP i.e. double daily A330s + daily A320

PEW - capacity increased from daily A320 to daily A321 effective 01SEP

KHI - capacity increased to daily B77L + daily B788 from 01NOV

KRT - frequencies reduced from triple daily to double daily A330s since late July with an increased block time of 6:30 hours due to Saudi air space blockade 


Friday, August 4, 2017

How to fix South African Airways - my personal opinion


According to a recent BBC article (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40813582), South African Airways is once again figuratively bankrupt and requests another major government bailout to ensure its short term survival. Over the past five years, it is the airline which has had the most number of CEO's leaving the post amidst a variety of allegations. Time after time all new business plans that have been submitted and approved either dont get implemented or get so half way through only.

Make no mistake about it, the South African market demand overall is high in volume domestically as well as for some international routes, both long haul and medium haul. However like majority of leisure, VFR oriented markets, yields have been a core problem in lieu of increasing competition especially on the long haul front to EU and Asia. A lot of their prime domestic + intra Africa routes make good money and see high yields but its the long haul operation that is a big financial killer for the airline especially so many destinations are still flown nonstop using the gas guzzling A346s/A343s.

Mentioned below is my personal input on how (if the Pretoria Govt wants to) can implement a quick fix solution for SAA which will cost some money in the short term but will have long term cash saving benefits considerably:

1. SAA's fleet of 8 A343s + 9 A346s need to be grounded by end of IATA W17 season i.e. 24MAR18.

2. A tender should be placed immediately to dry lease A332s and A333IGWs (only) to replace these 17 A340s asap. Sri Lankan Airlines has 4 relatively new and in good condition A333IGWs which are in a 2 class 297 seater configuration. These aircraft can operate on flights up to 10 hours nonstop from JNB airport. In addition, airlines such as Turkish too (who are in a bit of a cash crisis) wont mind dry leasing out few A333IGWs or A332s to generate guaranteed cash. Another airline that has spare wide body capacity available especially if the on going political crisis in the Gulf continues is Qatar Airways. They may have few A332s to dry lease out to SAA if an agreement can be reached.    

3. Currently, there are 2 destinations that are operated nonstop by SAA's A340 fleet which the A332/A333 cannot fly to i.e. JNB-JFK and JNB-HKG each respectively. 

For JFK, if a deal can be reached to lease in additional A330s to replace the gas guzzling A340 there is an easy solution as SAA should look to operate JFK via DKR on a daily basis using an A333. In total, the block time is 2 hours 10 minutes more round trip JNB-DKR-JFK v.v. versus JNB-JFK-JNB but the operational cost savings of using the A333 versus the A346 on a 30 hour plus route (round trip) is huge. In this manner, SAA would fly JNB-DKR-JFK daily with an A333 and its JNB-ACC-IAD 4 weekly + 3 weekly JNB-DKR-IAD would become JNB-ACC-IAD operated daily also using an A333. 

Approximately, an A346 costs US$ 526,000 at full costs to operate JNB-JFK-JNB whilst an A333 approximately would cost US$ 456,500 to operate JNB-DKR-JFK-DKR-JNB thus a daily savings of US$ 69,500 equating to US$ 25.36 million annually.

As far as HKG is concerned, its operated daily using an A343 with the flying block time being 13:05. Unfortunately, SAA needs to make the hard call and suspend flying to HKG for the foreseeable future as the A332/A333 cannot operate this route nonstop from JNB airport. There is no point operating one stop via MRU or any other point as it will result in a big competitive disadvantage hence until it can get its finances in order, SAA should look to code share with SQ and CX on the HKG-JNB-HKG sector. Sometimes, tough calls need to be made which SAA did in 2015 by suspending BOM, EZE and PEK so once again over here too, HKG needs to get the axe as there is no way the route can turn a net profit using an A343. 

4. Routes such as FRA and MUC which are 10:40 in flying time are just 10 minutes longer than JNB-GRU which is 10:30 and that is flown currently using an A333 so FRA and MUC too can become daily A333 services instead of costlier A346s (FRA) and A343s (MUC). Frequency reduction to MUC should also be implemented to save on costs i.e. from daily to 4 weekly maximum and only in peak winter season (DEC-FEB) when demand is ultra high should daily flights be operated.  

The costs saved by downgrading FRA from daily A346 to daily A333 is US$ 25.5 million + US$ 11.8 million for MUC from daily A343 to A333.

5. PER-JNB-PER is operated daily by an A343 however this route needs to be downgraded to an A332 as the A333 wont be able to operate with a full payload out of PER to JNB as the flying block time is 11:15. 

The costs saved by downgrading PER from daily A343 to daily A332 is US$ 18.47 million net.  

So in total this adds up to be US$ 81.13 million saved by downgrading flights from A340s to A330s on an annual basis !

6. In its short haul fleet, SAA for silly reasons operate both A320s and B738s on domestic + intra Africa routes. In any disciplined airline, fleet standardization is a key driver in reducing costs and increasing profits. Initially, SAA had B738s operating on its short/medium haul routes but then was forced into placing an order for A319s/A320s mysteriously which makes no commercial sense having two aircraft of the same type operating similar routes. Due to JNB's higher altitude, the B738 is a more stronger and capable aircraft versus the A320 especially if the flight time exceeds 4 hours. However considering that SAA's current narrow body mainline fleet has only 7 B738s versus 20 A319s/A320s (combined), it is best to focus it around the A320 family and sell its 7 B738s. In this way, if fleet standardization can be implemented, SAA's fleet would only consist of two types of aircraft i.e. A320 and A330 families which also have a cross crew qualification certification allowing pilots of both aircraft types to fly one or the other thus making it easy to roster and maintain across the board. 

7. SAA must lobby their local government to restrict access to the Middle East carriers into South Africa as they have taken away a lot of the market demand by dumping way too much capacity combined with offering sometimes predatory low fares on long haul market segments. For EK, SAA must lobby the Pretoria Government to restrict them to operate JNB on a double daily basis only + 11 weekly to CPT, daily to DUR and nothing more. EK currently operates 4 times daily to JNB and though it sees high S/F year round, its fares on long haul segments especially out of JNB are quite low in economy class. To CPT, EK operates triple daily which again is very excessive for a carrier that is heavily reliant on transfer traffic via DXB rather than P2P. 

8. If all of the above cannot be agreed upon and implemented by December 2017, then the South African government should not waste tax payer money keeping the airline afloat and should look to just shut it down and allow a foreign airline to launch a new privatized version of SAA and pay an annual royalty to the Pretoria Government thus generating guaranteed income for the state versus incurring massive losses year after year. A foreign carrier looking to invest in the South African marketplace must be allowed full independence and no government control. They must not be forced into taking on 100% of all of SAA's staff but rather only the most qualified and best fit to perform their job functions. 

9. If even point # 8 cannot be agreed upon by the Government then must look at the Swissair successful model of shutting down the airline and re-emerging under a new name with a clean balance sheet which has no legacy debt included in it. In addition, the newly emerged airline should not be allowed to have in its fleet the A340s under any circumstances. For this to take place, the government must take the punt and absorb all of SAA's historical debt and losses.


Thursday, August 3, 2017

Malaysia Airlines announces Asia expansion


Malaysia Airlines has officially announced plans to boost its capacity offering on key markets where it has performed well over the past year along with seeing overall demand too grow. The main highlights effective from the on set of the IATA W17 season are as follows:

ICN - frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly nonstop operated exclusively by A333s

BOM - frequencies increased from double daily to 17 weekly i.e. 5 weekly A333s + 12 weekly B738s

TPE - frequencies increased from daily to 11 weekly nonstop operated exclusively by B738s

DEL - frequencies increased from daily to 10 weekly nonstop operated by a mix of B738s (4 wk) and A333s (6 wk)

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Vietnam expansion revealed by Qatar Airways


Qatar Airways
has officially announced major expansion plans for Vietnam as it looks to adequately feed its European flights with volume based demand destinations.


Effective 01JAN18, frequencies to Hanoi shall be boosted from daily to double daily flights exclusively operated by the B777-300ER. The existing daily service via Bangkok shall continue to operate whilst the second daily will be flown as a nonstop terminator. 

From the same above mentioned date onward, Ho Chi Minh City will also be increased from daily A332 to 10 weekly nonstop flights using the same aircraft type. 


Monday, July 31, 2017

Qatar Airways Airbus A350-1000 configuration - my brief analysis

The Airbus A350-1000 configuration of Qatar Airways has been officially disclosed today by Australian Business Traveler magazine stating that the aircraft will seat 327 passengers in a two class layout.

The cabin break down shall see 46 business class Q Suite seats + 281 in economy.

In total, QR ordered 37 A351s from Airbus.

Analysis:

The configuration chosen is a good one as it only has 8 less seats than its B77Ws but operational cost wise it is cheaper to fly by a decent margin. 

One would deploy the first 2.5 A351s to JFK (QR 701/702) daily replacing the B77W currently flown on this particular rotation as that would enable JFK to become a double daily A350 service as QR 703/704 is already flown by an A359. In this manner, it is easier for crew rostering to also plan accordingly for this sector.

The next 2.5 aircraft, one would use to replace the current B77W on DOH-IAD which is flown daily followed by 1 A351 to replace the B77W on 3 weekly DOH-YUL.

So in total the first 6 A351s could be used on daily JFK + daily IAD + 3 weekly YUL. The B77Ws coming out of these 3 markets, can be used to replace the gas guzzling 4 A346s from the fleet entirely which would be an additional cost saving.

Unfortunately, there is no chance that the A351 would be able to operate DOH-MIA in any season.

As far as having a separate high density configuration is concerned (like they have on their B77W fleet), the A351 with 24J class seats would likely seat 370 pax in a 2 class HD layout versus 380 on their current B77W (HD). This aircraft configuration (370 seater A351) is ideal for CMB, CGK, BKK and MNL etc.

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Thai Airways announces Vienna nonstop

Thai Airways has officially announced that it will be launching new nonstop services to VIE-Vienna, Austria effective 16NOV17. Flights shall be operated 4 times per week using a 292 seater B777-200ER. 

The schedule is as follows:

Days: 1/4/6/7

TG 936 Dep BKK 0130 Arr VIE 0700
TG 937 Dep VIE 1330 Arr BKK 0520+1

In 2016, the P2P demand between BKK and VIE was 114,000 pax and 3 airlines operate this sector nonstop i.e. Austrian, Eva Air and now Thai Airways. 

Friday, July 21, 2017

Sydney increased by Qatar Airways to double daily nonstop

Qatar Airways has officially published on the GDS system that it shall be increasing its presence in Australia with the addition of a new second daily nonstop service to Sydney airport from Doha. This new flight will extend onwards to the capital city i.e. CBR-Canberra using a Boeing 777-300ER. 

The new flight will be operated effective 12FEB18 and the schedule is as follows:

Days: Daily
Aircraft: B777-300ER

QR 906 Dep DOH 0810 Arr SYD 0615+1
QR 906 Dep SYD 0725 Arr CBR 0825

QR 907 Dep CBR 1345 Arr SYD 1445
QR 907 Dep SYD 1555 Arr DOH 2230

The above schedule offers good two way connections via DOH to Europe, GCC, UK and selected African points which will further spread out QR's pax demographic profile on board its SYD bound services.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Emirates makes Brussels double daily nonstop

Emirates has officially announced that due to high demand especially for its premium cabins and cargo on its Brussels bound services, it shall be boosting its presence on this route from the on set of the IATA W17 season.

Currently, EK operates a daily nonstop flight between DXB and BRU using a B77W however from 29OCT17, these shall be boosted to double daily using the same aircraft type with the new flight scheduled as follows:

EK 181 Dep DXB 1420 Arr BRU 1845
EK 182 Dep BRU 2015 Arr DXB 0555+1

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Air Canada increases Delhi-Vancouver frequencies

Air Canada has officially confirmed that due to popular demand, it shall be taking an aggressive approach during the upcoming IATA Winter season by boosting frequencies to Delhi from Vancouver.

Currently, AC operates 3 weekly nonstop flights YVR-DEL-YVR on a winter seasonal basis using a B789. However effective 04DEC17, these shall be increased to 5 weekly nonstop using the same aircraft type.

AC's move is a proactive one designed to consolidate its market share on this important high volume market segment and regain lost market share from Pacific carriers such as CA, CX, CZ, CI, KE, OZ and JL.

In 2016, 160,000 passengers flew P2P YVR-DEL-YVR !

Wataniya Airways officially relaunches with 3 new destinations

Wataniya Airways of Kuwait has officially announced plans of its re-launch by announcing 3 new niche destinations that are to be operated from mid July 2017 onwards. The carrier will be using 2 A320s initially in the start up phase with a gradual build up to 5 by the IATA W17 season.

The 3 launch destinations are as follows:

TBS - 3 weekly nonstop flights eff 11JUL 


GYD - 2 weekly nonstop flights eff 12JUL


SJJ - 2 weekly nonstop flights eff 13JUL

This is a smart move targeting destinations such as TBS and SJJ which do not currently see nonstop service from KWI thus enabling the carrier to have a monopoly hold that in turn allows them to increase yields. GYD on the other hand currently sees Jazeera operating 2 weekly nonstop flights out of KWI on a summer seasonal basis.
 

Monday, July 3, 2017

PIA reduces Kuala Lumpur operations

PIA has officially announced that it shall be reducing its presence in Kuala Lumpur effective 10JUL17 as the carrier looks to consolidate its presence out of one Pakistani city only.

All flights from Peshawar, Islamabad and Lahore which totaled 5 per week are suspended and instead the airline will operate Karachi-Kuala Lumpur-Karachi nonstop in both directions using a Boeing 777-200.

The schedule is as follows:

Days - 1/2/5/6

PK 896 Dep KHI 0200 Arr KUL 1100
PK 897 Dep KUL 1230 Arr KHI 1530

Friday, June 9, 2017

Alitalia announces Rome-Delhi nonstop

Alitalia has officially announced that it will be launching new nonstop flights between its primary Rome (FCO) hub and Delhi from the on set of the IATA W17 season i.e. 29OCT.

Services will be operated on a daily basis using an Airbus A330-200 with the below mentioned schedule:

AZ 768 Dep FCO 1440 Arr DEL 0240+1
AZ 769 Dep DEL 0440 Arr FCO 0900

Flights are largely timed to connect to North America via FCO as well as selected EU destinations.

In 2016, the P2P round trip demand between Italy and Delhi was as follows:

FCO/DEL - 71,000 pax 
MXP/DEL - 102,000 pax

Thursday, June 1, 2017

United announces LAX-Singapore nonstop

United Airlines has officially announced that it will be launching a new ultra long haul route from the on set of the IATA Winter 2017 season as it seeks to aggressively expand its trans-pacific presence at Los Angeles.

UA will be operating a new daily nonstop service to Singapore from Los Angeles using a Boeing 787-9 effective 29OCT17. This will be the airline's second ultra long haul route as it currently operates a daily nonstop SFO-SIN service using the same aircraft type. 

The schedule for LAX-SIN-LAX is as follows:

Days - Daily

UA 037 Dep LAX 2055 Arr SIN 0650+2
UA 038 Dep SIN 1100 Arr LAX 1015

In 2016, the total P2P demand between SIN and LAX was 97,000 passengers approximately versus 149,000 for SFO-SIN v.v.

Air India announces Copenhagen-Delhi nonstop

Air India has officially opened for sale its new European destination i.e. Copenhagen, Denmark which it shall launch effective 16SEP17 onwards.

AI will fly 3 times per week nonstop from its primary Delhi hub to CPH using a B788 with the below mentioned schedule:

Days: TUE THU SAT

AI 157 Dep DEL 1410 Arr CPH 1850
AI 158 Dep CPH 2035 Arr DEL 0745+1

In 2016, the P2P demand between DEL and CPH was 34,000 passengers and AI's new service is designed to also feed its BKK/KTM/domestic India and CMB flights via DEL.

Monday, May 29, 2017

Sri Lankan Airlines announces Melbourne-Colombo nonstop

Sri Lankan Airlines has officially announced that it will be launching new nonstop flights to Melbourne, Australia effective 29OCT17 from its Colombo hub in order to tap into the large Tamil/Sinhalese diaspora residing over there which is the largest in the Oceania region.

Services will be operated on a daily basis using an A330-200 scheduled as follows:

UL 604 Dep CMB 2350 Arr MEL 1525+1
UL 605 Dep MEL 1655 Arr CMB 2215

Comments:

In 2016, the P2P demand between CMB and MEL was 117,300 passengers which is high however a carrier which is largely dependent on VFR/leisure traffic should not launch a new long haul service as daily from the get go. In addition, connections via CMB to LHR are not available in both directions as only GCC/India connect conveniently.

This is a very high risk move being undertaken by UL as maximum 4 weekly nonstop services are required to begin with to build up the market. Also just because it offers a niche nonstop product, if carriers such as EK/SQ/MH/TG start dumping fares to lure passengers away (since its a price sensitive market segment), it will hurt UL more as they will be wholly dependent on P2P demand on this route whilst the others have diverse demand for various cities via their respective hubs.

In 2015, UL underwent a major cost cutting exercise in eliminating high loss making long haul routes in Europe such as FCO MXP FRA and CDG which was a sound business decision as the airline could not sustain it. Instead it chose to code share with QR via DOH to Europe/MENA which was the right commercial move.

Now with a similar new long haul route to be launched like MEL-CMB it is unfortunately very similar but much higher risk as FRA/CDG were not operated on a daily basis nonstop in the past + they had better two way connections via CMB to Asia for feeder purposes which MEL does not via CMB to Europe.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Cebu Pacific suspends Kuwait, Riyadh and Doha flights

Cebu Pacific, the low cost carrier based out of the Philippines has officially announced that due to high losses and the ill conceived ultra low fares that they were charging passengers to fly them from the GCC to MNL v.v., they shall be suspending flights to 3 huge Middle Eastern markets effective June 2017.

Kuwait which is currently operated 4 times per week will be cut off from 14JUN. Over the past year, 244,000 passengers flew between KWI and MNL.

Doha which is currently operated 3 times per week will be suspended effective 02JUL and it had a P2P demand of 230,000 pax over the past year.

Riyadh which is currently operated 3 times per week will be suspended effective 03JUL and it had a P2P demand of 440,000 pax over the past year.

Link:

http://gulfbusiness.com/cebu-pacific-suspends-flights-manila-doha-riyadh-kuwait/

Comments:

This is what happens when airlines such as 5J think that they can sustain selling US$ 200-250 round trip fares all taxes inclusive between KWI and MNL for a flight that takes almost 10 hours to operate !


Thursday, May 18, 2017

Emirates increases Shanghai capacity

Emirates has officially announced that it shall be increasing its capacity on the popular Shanghai route effective 01JUL17 as demand from Europe and GCC has grown for its flights.

Currently, EK operates a daily B77W + daily A380 however from 01JUL17 all flights shall be exclusively flown by the A380.

In 2016, the P2P market demand between PVG and DXB was 189,000 passengers and now Chinese citizens get visa on arrival in UAE for tourist and business purposes which in turn shall stimulate demand even further.

EK 304/305 which departs DXB at 0940am is the flight getting upgraded from B77W to A380.

The top 10 markets feeding EK's PVG flights are DXB, GRU, BCN, MXP, CDG, LIS, FCO, MRU, CAI and IKA.


Tuesday, May 16, 2017

KLM announces Mumbai

After a gap of 16 years, KLM has finally announced that it shall be returning to India's financial center with new nonstop flights to Mumbai from Amsterdam effective 29OCT17.

KL will operate this service 3 times per week nonstop using a B789 as part of a JV with 9W-Jet Airways who also currently operate a daily BOM-AMS flight using a B77W.

P2P demand between AMS and India in 2016 was as follows:

DEL - 91,000
BOM - 76,000
BLR - 33,000
MAA - 18,000
HYD - 10,000

Saturday, May 13, 2017

Singapore Airlines unveils A359LR configuration

Singapore Airlines has had its Airbus A350 ULR configuration disclosed to the media. SQ has on order 7 variants of this type on order which shall be used to operate nonstop from SIN to Newark (EWR) and LAX (Los Angeles) on a daily basis each respectively.

In total these 7 planes will have 162 seats only with 68 flat bed business class seats + 94 premium economy (2-4-2). 

Round trip business class fares for this new service is expected to be priced at US$8000 + taxes. 

Source: https://twitter.com/A350_Production/status/863016113877155840

Friday, May 12, 2017

Emirates increases Brisbane to triple daily

Emirates has officially announced that it will be boosting its presence in the Brisbane market place by adding a second daily nonstop service from its Dubai hub effective 01DEC17.

Currently, EK operates a daily A380 as DXB-BNE-AKL v.v. + a daily B77W as DXB SIN BNE 

The new second daily nonstop flight will be flown using a B772LR using the below schedule:

EK 430 Dep DXB 2200 Arr BNE 1815+1
EK 431 Dep BNE 2225 Arr DXB 0700+1

P2P Market demand in 2016 between EU/GCC to/from BNE was as follows:

LON (LGW + LHR combined) - 185,000
DXB - 67,000
MAN - 42,000
BHX - 11,000
DUB - 29,000
GLA - 11,000
EDI - 6,000
CDG - 38,000
BRU - 4,000
MAD - 9,000
BCN - 11,000
FRA - 22,000
MUC - 12,000
DUS - 8,000
AMS - 27,000
CPH - 12,000
ZRH - 17,000
MXP - 12,000
ATH - 10,000
FCO - 26,000
DME - 3,000
WAW - 4,000
IKA - 4,000
AUH - 16,000
SIN - 195,000
BKK - 88,000

Delta orders 30 more A321s

Delta Airlines has officially announced that it has placed another incremental order worth over US$3 billion with Airbus for 30 Airbus A321-200s. This makes DL one of the largest A321 customers with a total of 112 aircraft on order.

In addition to the above, DL also revealed that it will be taking delivery on schedule its first 5 A359s however the remaining initial batch of 10 aircraft are being deferred for 3 years. 

The configuration disclosed for DL's A359s are as follows:

306 seats in total i.e. 32J + 48W + 226Y

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Emirates announces $340 million net profit

The Emirates Group has announced its 2016-2017 Full Year financial results today of which the main highlights are as follows:

1. EK made a net profit of $340M

2. DNATA made a net profit of $330M

3. Total Emirates Group net profit was $670M i.e. -70% versus previous year

The full detailed financial report and press release can be read via these 2 links

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/ek-newsroom-emirates-group-announces-2016-17-results#

https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2017.pdf



Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Air India announces Dallas, Stockholm and Los Angeles


Air India's CEO today officially announced major plans concerning its long haul expansion strategy for 2017 of which the main highlights are as follows:
  • ​DEL-LAX 3 weekly nonstop flights to be launched effective 01SEP17 using a B77L
  • DEL-ARN 3 weekly nonstop flights to be launched effective 15AUG using a B788
  • Dallas will be launched in Q4 2017 along with Tel Aviv and Nairobi
  • DEL-IAD confirmed to start as 3 weekly nonstop effective 07JUL17 using a B77W

PAL suspends Abu Dhabi-Manila services


Philippine Airlines has officially confirmed that as part of a broader code share arrangement with Etihad Airways, it shall be suspending its own MNL-AUH services effective 07JUL17.



Currently, PAL operates 3 times per week on the MNL-AUH-MNL sector using an A333. Over the past 12 months, over 200,000 pax flew P2P between AUH and MNL.


Etihad will continue to operate its own 17 weekly flights between AUH and MNL using a 412 seater B77W for all the services. 

Monday, May 8, 2017

What markets are viable if Alitalia fails?

Over the past week, there have been numerous media reports of Alitalia entering into "administration" or "bankruptcy protection" in Italy whilst the local Government looks to supply it with a $600 million loan to keep it afloat until November 2016 only. The Italian Government has categorically stated that it has already invested nearly $8 billion into the ailing carrier since the past decade and the public appetite for another bailout is totally non-favorable.

Mentioned below are the top medium/long haul markets to/from Rome + Milan in 2016 that AZ's competitors can take advantage of (by operating higher or year round frequencies) if the carrier goes bust. The route segments highlighted in green especially are the ones to be considered.

ITALY-NORTH AMERICA 2016 DEMAND
Route
FCO
MXP/LIN
Difference
BOS
94,000
40,000
54,000
DFW
38,000
17,000
21,000
EWR
93,000
90,000
3,000
IAD
81,000
20,000
61,000
JFK
274,000
550,000
(276,000)
LAS
20,000
23,000
(3,000)
LAX
150,000
91,000
59,000
MCO
29,000
15,000
14,000
MIA
100,000
118,000
(18,000)
ORD
124,000
52,000
72,000
PHL
70,000
11,000
59,000
SEA
27,000
12,000
15,000
SFO
101,000
72,000
29,000
YUL
108,000
22,000
86,000
YYZ
155,000
40,000
115,000
TOTAL
1,464,000
1,173,000
291,000


ITALY-MAIN WORLD CITIES 2016 DEMAND
Route
FCO
MXP/LIN
Difference
BKK
126,000
160,000
(34,000)
IKA
55,000
83,000
(28,000)
CMB
69,000
75,000
(6,000)
DEL
84,000
146,000
(62,000)
DXB
239,000
210,000
29,000
EZE
175,000
60,000
115,000
GIG
55,000
35,000
20,000
GRU
110,000
105,000
5,000
HKG
93,000
120,000
(27,000)
ICN
316,000
101,000
215,000
MNL
77,000
85,000
(8,000)
NRT/HND
195,000
208,000
(13,000)
PEK
99,000
115,000
(16,000)
PVG
91,000
160,000
(69,000)
TLV
311,000
275,000
36,000
TOTAL
2,095,000
1,938,000
157,000

With regards to the USA-Italy market segment:

1. American Airlines or United should consider making ORD-FCO a year round service with at least a 4 weekly B763ER operated service during the winter season

2. LAX-Italy I have not highlighted as its a ultra long haul service totaling 13 hours each way hence extremely high risk since the yields are not that great. It could however sustain a summer seasonal service only.

3. MIA-Italy should be operated year round by AA with a B787. Currently AA only flies a daily year round B763ER between MIA and MXP but with such a large MIA hub operation already in place, it can be able to sustain along side with MIA-MXP a 4 weekly year round MIA-FCO service.

As far as the other worldwide markets are concerned:

1. It is really surprising to note that ICN-FCO demand is higher than FCO-JFK considering the huge Italian emigrant community residing in NYC

2. TG can increase BKK-MXP from the current 3 to 5 weekly using an A359 along with BKK-FCO too from 4 to 5 weekly

3. AI can sustain a 5th weekly DEL-MXP nonstop service using a B788

4. With AZ out their daily nonstop MXP-NRT + FCO-NRT service would leave a huge void which JAL or ANA can fulfil by operating a 4 weekly service of their own using a B787.