Emirates

Emirates CEO has officially confirmed that the airline has totally written off ordering the passenger version of the Boeing 747-800 and instead wants to focus on building its A 380 passenger fleet as the exclusive VLA in its fleet. In addition, EK is pressing Boeing to improve the payload range of its Boeing 777-300ER to allow the aircraft to fly to LAX nonstop from its DXB hub base with a full payload of passengers + cargo. Lastly, EK has announced that it will be increasing its flights to MNL-Manila from Dec 1st 09 onwards from the current 12 weekly to double daily nonstop using a 2 class Boeing 777-300ER for both of the double daily flights.

Analysis:

According to available data, the Airbus A 350-1000X will be able to perform DXB-LAX with a full payload matching the B 773ER. EK has already ordered 20 A 351s which is an ideal aircraft from all aspects to fully replace any airline's B 773ER fleet. It is therefore advisable to Boeing that in order to remain competitive with a modern product, it should now focus on the B 787 and abandon making any further improvements to its B 777 product line which is now 17 years old and had a good life span. The direct competitor from a technological stand point to the A 350 is the B 787 and not the B 777.

If Boeing ignore this, then what Airbus did to them in the 1990s by getting airlines to order the A 330s in large number versus the outdated B 767-300ER/400ER will happen once again. Boeing needs to focus its efforts on two products for the next 10 years i.e. the B 787 family and a more advanced B 737 replacement. There needs to be a stretched Boeing 787 called the -400 which should be a direct replacement for the B 773ER but with the range of the B 772LR. This aircraft would be a world beater and can be a big success as airlines in 7-8 years time would definitely order it to replace their fleet of B 773ERs in time for a 2019-21 delivery period. Airlines that would potentially order this aircraft in bulk would be EK/CX/JL/ANA/SQ/AF/BA/KL/TK/EY/QR/VA/AC/KE/OZ/TG.